4 min read
Every month, CoinShares’ Research team gathers on X to discuss all things crypto and finance. The latest edition of our Talk focused on the September FOMC meeting and its impact on risk assets.
Led by James Butterfill, our Research team also examined recent institutional behavior toward digital assets, the SEC’s new framework for issuing crypto ETFs, the bearish trend in digital asset treasuries (DATs), and the evolving stablecoin landscape.
Key takeaways
1. Fed policy and macro backdrop
The Fed delivered its first rate cut since December, signaling a shift toward easing.
Despite this dovish move, markets stayed mostly flat, highlighting uncertainty about the pace and scale of future cuts.
The Fed faces a “two-sided risk”: inflation persistence vs. rising unemployment. This creates no risk-free path for policy.
2. Impact on Bitcoin and crypto
Bitcoin is increasingly treated as a store of value, reacting to macro signals like CPI, payrolls, and rate decisions much like gold or Treasuries.
Rate cuts provide a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin and crypto, though effects may play out over weeks rather than immediately.
In a recessionary scenario, equities could struggle while Bitcoin benefits as a monetary policy hedge.
3. Institutional flows into digital assets
Crypto ETFs have seen strong inflows despite volatility.
Year-to-date: ~$33bn into Bitcoin products, ~$12bn into Ethereum.
September alone contributed billions, suggesting resilient institutional demand.
Ethereum especially benefited from regulatory clarity around stablecoins and tokenized assets, driving treasury company activity and inflows.
4. Rotations and market dynamics
A clear rotation cycle seems to emerged: Bitcoin → Ethereum → Solana.
This is reminiscent of “alt seasons” and may help define the “blue chips” of the next cycle.
Bitcoin’s volatility has declined sharply (130% in 2018 vs. ~27% now), with more holders adopting long-term holding behavior.
5. SEC’s new framework for crypto ETFs
The SEC introduced a streamlined process that reduces bureaucracy, accelerates Altcoin ETF issuance, and ensures higher-quality tokens make it through, while small illiquid ones face scrutiny.
6. Ethereum and Solana outlook
Ethereum remains the primary beneficiary of tokenization and stablecoin rails, holding most of the market share.
Recent cooling in ETH flows reflects a breather after sharp gains, not a loss of fundamentals.
Solana is having its moment with the Alpenglow upgrade and upcoming ETF filings. Mid-October is seen as a key approval deadline.
7. Stablecoins and treasury companies
Stablecoin usage continues to expand (USDT, USDC, new entrants).
Treasury companies linked to ETH and BTC show different market dynamics, with premiums reflecting dilution mechanics and investor expectations.
Tokenization of money market funds, treasuries, and other assets is a fast-growing $30bn+ market, largely on Ethereum.
