Market update | July 24th, 2026

Regulation sends prices whipsawing

For the first time since the spring, it was Washington rather than macro data that set the tone. Bitcoin broke above US$66,000 early in the week after Treasury Secretary Bessent described the Clarity Act as being at the "one-yard line", with ether, XRP and the broader market rallying as the bill made progress towards the Senate floor. The move reversed just as quickly on Wednesday when a group of key Senate Democrats said the latest draft "falls short" on ethics provisions. The implied odds of passage dropped from 46% to 38%, and bitcoin retraced from its US$66,700 high back towards US$65,500. Sixty votes are needed and roughly two working weeks remain before the summer break. As we have argued before, the Clarity Act matters less for bitcoin, already with regulatory clarity, than for the long tail of assets and the market-structure plumbing behind them. This week demonstrated, in both directions, that the market is nonetheless trading the headline.

Iran conflict resumes, pushing oil above US$100

Over the last 10 days, Iranian authorities say the US has struck some 95 locations across 12 cities, and the Houthis have opened a new front, claiming attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and threatening a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. Brent added more than US$14 over the week and broke US$100 on Thursday, reaching an eight-week high. Rate expectations have behaved accordingly, with markets implying nearly two rate hikes this year, up from only one last week. Mediators are circulating a 10-day ceasefire proposal that could put the June MOU back on track. The headline risk now cuts both ways, and next week's FOMC meeting gives the re-rating a focal point.

The floor holds, the ceiling too

Price action this week validated the framework we set out last week: the floor is in, but the upside is capped. Bitcoin is up around 13% from its 1 July low of US$57,750, making this the best month since January so far. Yet, it has spent three consecutive sessions pinned in a US$64,000–66,800 range, with ETH near US$1,920. Flows were US$716M for the week, making it the strongest week for flows since early May. While the regulation front is looking positive, we see no catalyst for a significant short-term rally absent a shift in monetary policy expectations, which, if anything, moved further away this week. The market is currently trading two competing binaries: the Clarity vote count and the tanker war, and so, range trading remains our base case.