Equities update | February 6th 2026

Week 6 saw elevated volatility across blockchain equities, with technology names under particular pressure as the VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) rose to around 30, levels last seen in November 2025. This was driven by continued risk-off sentiment from late last week and a partial cooling in the AI capex trade, despite the “Magnificent 7 names” guiding to higher-than-expected spending. Crypto assets also weakened significantly with Bitcoin declining approximately 14.3% over the week and reaching a peak drawdown of roughly 23%, a notable move following President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. On the corporate side, crypto payment companies reported softer revenues due to lower crypto prices and trading volumes, while Strategy Inc. highlighted its approximately US$2.25bn liquidity reserve, which management indicated is sufficient to cover debt servicing and dividend obligations for roughly 2–3 years.

Week 6 key developments in Blockchain Equities:

• Index Performance: This week, the Index declined by (14.7%), while Bitcoin fell (14.3%). Macroeconomic data was relatively light, with ADP and JOLTS releases pointing to a gradual cooling in the labour market. However, the broader risk-off move appeared largely technical in nature, driven by negative positioning, de-leveraging across the technology complex including crypto and AI-exposed names alongside the software sector. As a result, the sell-off does not currently appear to reflect a meaningful deterioration in underlying corporate earnings fundamentals which continue to remain strong.

• Block Index Key Movers: 7-day top performers: Kinsus Interconnect (+13.6%), Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings (+3.7%), CME Group (+2.6) 7-day worst performers: Galaxy Digital (-43.6%), SharpLink Gaming (-35.2%), CleanSpark (-34.4%)

• ERCOT proposed interconnection reforms expected to reshape Texas power access for Bitcoin miners – ERCOT is moving from a first-come, first-served interconnection model to a batch-based approval system due to a surge in load applications with the backlog now exceeding 200GW. The current process is increasingly rendering sequential grid studies ineffective, as the continuous influx of new load requests frequently invalidates previously completed analysis. Under the proposed framework, “Batch Zero A” prioritises projects that are already operational, fully studied, financially secured, or close to energisation, effectively reserving capacity for the most advanced and well-capitalised developments, while earlier-stage or speculative projects are deferred into future batches. Looking ahead, ERCOT intends to issue approvals every six months, aligned with an approximately six-year transmission buildout cycle, with capacity potentially allocated progressively rather than fully upfront. This materially increases capital, execution, and timeline certainty requirements, structurally favouring incumbent operators and well-funded developers while raising barriers to entry for new participants.

  For Bitcoin miners, this creates a clear divide: incumbents with operating and approved Texas power, particularly Index constituent’s RIOT Platforms (RIOT US EQUITY), Core Scientific (CORZ US EQUITY) and partly Galaxy Digital (GLXY US EQUITY), benefit as existing capacity becomes more valuable. The biggest uncertainty lies with large Texas development pipelines (e.g., Iris Energy’s (IREN US EQUITY) Sweetwater, HUT-8’s (HUT US EQUITY) Corpus Christi, Cipher Mining’s (CIFR US EQUITY) Cochilla/Three M’s, CleanSpark’s (CLSK US EQUITY) new Texas assets and Galaxy’s 800MW expansion at Helios), which must meet early batch criteria or face multi-year delays, though Iris Energy likely has the strongest positioning given Sweetwater’s advanced stage. The new framework also materially raises capital requirements, roughly US$100k/MW, or US$$50 million upfront for a 500 MW site potentially leading to Miner’s looking to diversify towards the Midwest, PJM market or even internationally. A decision on the proposed changes is expected later this month, with February 20th currently the anticipated timeline.

• Earnings Recap – Key Holdings:

  • AMD, Sony Group, CME Group, SBI Holdings - Positive

  • CleanSpark, Iris Energy, Strategy Inc – Mixed

  • Galaxy Digital, PayPal – Negative

• Other news: Index constituent GMO Internet Group (9449 JP EQUITY) is reportedly preparing to IPO its crypto exchange subsidiary, GMO Coin, on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. New addition to the Index Circle Internet Group (CRCL US EQUITY) announced a partnership with Polymarket, signalling further integration of stablecoins into on-chain prediction and market infrastructure use cases. Iris Energy announced plans for a new 1.6 GW data center campus in Oklahoma, with grid studies already completed and power expected to begin ramping from 2028. Cipher Mining received approximately $13bn of demand for its $2bn debt issuance, priced competitively at a 6.125% yield, to support development of its Black Pearl facility leased to Amazon AWS. Meanwhile, PayPal (PYPL US EQUITY) announced that CEO Alex Chriss will be replaced by HP Inc. CEO Enrique Lores. Finally, Galaxy Digital announced a US$200m share buy-back program for it’s class A common stock.