Circle’s IPO: a valuation that raises eyebrows, and expectations

It’s not often you watch a crypto-native company walk onto Wall Street.

Circle, the issuer of USDC, a firm that can boast strong compliance optics and institutional-grade partnerships, has just gone public. And based on initial market cap figures, it seems its banking partners may have underpriced it quite significantly. In short: Circle left a lot on the table, with a $31 IPO price and a first-day close at $83.

Whether that’s the result of cautious underwriters, conservative forecasts, or simply a bit of old-school finance misreading the structural role stablecoins now play, the result is the same: investors scooped up exposure at what looks like a discount.

That said, the implied multiple confirms what we suspected all along: the market is hungry for credible crypto infrastructure plays. The stablecoin sector, once treated as a potential systemic threat, is now being repriced as the critical monetary layer it truly is.

But let’s not hype ourselves. 

Undervalued today, overvalued tomorrow?

Circle may be undervalued today, but it may also be overvalued tomorrow, it might already be. Why? Because the competition is now coming from the one sector with even better regulatory connections and far deeper pockets: traditional banking.

Just last month, the Wall Street Journal reported that major banks were converging on a unified solution. Pushed by JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, a “crypto dollar” from the banking elite would directly challenge Circle’s first-mover advantage. Capital is no longer the bottleneck: distribution, regulation, and geopolitical leverage are.

In that sense, Circle’s moment is both a triumph and a test. The company must prove that its nimbleness, product-market fit, and Web3-native DNA can withstand what is shaping up to be a very TradFi storm. And it must show that its dependence on Coinbase can be managed  or outgrown.

Watching this unfold might be just as entertaining as the Musk vs. Trump saga. On one side: protocol purists and early crypto VCs. On the other: the global banking elite and their digital double standards.

This isn’t just a valuation question. It’s a signal that crypto isn’t just surviving but it’s being priced, fought over, and reshaped by the oldest game in finance: control of money.

The game is on.