4 Min. LesezeitAt the beginning of the week, markets were shocked by the news that DeepSeek 3.5 outperformed GPT-4 and Claude 3.5 Sonnet in math and reasoning—akin to a kid in a garage beating the AI titans.
The real story, however, is that DeepSeek likely used ChatGPT data to train itself—essentially data theft—making it a clone of GPT-4. However, it has made a significant breakthrough in efficiency by cutting down computation costs—shrinking 16-bit floating point calculations to 8-bit. This is a major innovation, as it effectively halves compute demand while keeping the training models stable and maintaining a similar output. They used a larger model to train a smaller one. Despite initial market reactions, the actual implications may be far less significant than initially thought though.
Trump’s Executive Order on Digital Financial Technology
While $TRUMP coin was a bad look for the crypto industry—ultimately a sideshow with extreme caveat emptor—the real news was President Trump signing an executive order titled “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology.”
A specialized working group has been formed to:
Ensure individuals and private entities can freely use public blockchain networks
Promote the sovereignty of the U.S. dollar
Guarantee fair access to banking services
Provide regulatory clarity
Protect Americans from risks associated with Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)
The order mandates that within 180 days, the Working Group will present a report outlining regulatory and legislative recommendations. The report will specifically focus on:
Establishing a federal regulatory framework for digital assets, including stablecoins
Covering market structure, oversight, consumer protection, and risk management
Assessing the feasibility of creating a national digital asset stockpile, potentially using lawfully seized cryptocurrencies
Investors were disappointed that the order did not take immediate action on Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. However, we believe the approach outlined in the order provides a far stronger foundation by being passed through Congress, ensuring it cannot be easily reversed by future administrations. If enacted, this would be even more momentous than the launch of spot-based Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., significantly improving the asset class’s credibility among institutional investors.
Tariffs: price inflation expected
On the macro front, President Trump’s policies emphasize low taxation and light-touch regulation to stimulate economic growth. However, tariffs aimed at boosting U.S. manufacturing competitiveness could drive up prices in the short term. Stricter immigration controls may also lead to labor shortages in sectors like agriculture and construction, further intensifying inflationary pressures.
The Federal Reserve, having already cut rates by 100 basis points, has signaled that it needs clear evidence of economic weakness and subdued inflation before further easing. With growth-friendly policies in place and tariffs and immigration restrictions creating inflationary risks, a substantial slowdown in job creation and inflation may be necessary before the Fed cuts rates again.
At the moment, futures markets indicate that the next rate cut is expected in June 2025. Once again, U.S. politics is heavily influencing Bitcoin prices.
Bitcoin Allocations High, But Multi-Asset Strategies Emerging
Before concluding, I invite you to explore our latest Digital Asset Fund Manager Survey, which highlights that Bitcoin allocations remain high, though there are signs that investors are shifting focus to multi-asset strategies.
One interesting finding is the decline in digital asset weighting in portfolios from 1% to 0.7%. This surprised us but can be explained by cautious institutional investors reducing allocations. Conversely, most other investor types increased their allocations, with family offices seeing the most notable growth.
Additionally, we have seen a significant decline in concerns over a government ban, although regulatory uncertainty remains a key issue.
