Marktupdate – 10. Juli 2026

The Fed, Iran and Strategy: bitcoin's three-front headwind

The market backdrop has become more difficult again. The ceasefire in Iran now looks less like a resolution and more like a fragile truce, and that renewed uncertainty has weighed on bitcoin's recovery over the last day or so. At the same time, the latest FOMC minutes reinforced a hawkish bias from the Fed, leaving September hike risk firmly alive. Taken together, geopolitics and monetary policy remain the two main headwinds for crypto in the near term.

The June 16 to 17 FOMC minutes carried unusual weight because Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has still not offered a clear public view on the policy path.¹ That leaves the minutes as the committee's only real on-record guide to how serious the Fed is about another hike this year. The message was clearly hawkish. The committee held rates unanimously at 3.50% to 3.75%, but it also removed the easing bias from the statement, keeping both directions open.² Inflation remained the dominant concern, with core PCE running at 3.3% in April and estimated at 3.4% for May,³ driven by tariffs, disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and continued AI-related demand. The labour market, with unemployment at 4.3% in May,⁴ was seen as broadly balanced, giving policymakers little reason to soften their stance (the rate has since eased to 4.2% in June).⁵ A few members even suggested that a hike could already be justified, though they supported holding for now. The broad implication is that the Fed still leans hawkish and September remains live.

Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to real rates and dollar liquidity in the short run, and the combination of a stronger policy hurdle and renewed geopolitical stress has capped the recovery. Dollar and yield differentials continue to matter. For now, bitcoin is still trading more like a macro asset than a pure alternative safe haven.

Signs of a bottom formation appear

ETP flows across all issuers are starting to look more interesting. We have now seen roughly $8B of outflows over the last eight weeks, the longest such streak on record for spot bitcoin ETFs.⁶ That is clearly a major headwind, but the last few days have been more constructive, with reports of renewed inflows over the last three trading days [figure to be reconfirmed].⁷ That does not yet amount to a full reversal, but it does suggest sentiment may be reaching capitulation levels. In markets like this, the turn often begins when forced selling is exhausted rather than when the headline backdrop improves.

The Strategy (MSTR) question also looks less threatening than many feared. We do not see Strategy as existential to bitcoin. Its holdings account for around 4% of total supply,⁸ which is meaningful but nowhere near enough to create a structural collapse on its own. More importantly, sentiment has mattered far more than the actual selling. When Strategy first announced it would sell bitcoin in early June, disposing of just 32 BTC, the market reaction was sharp: MSTR shares fell roughly 6% and bitcoin slipped about 2% on the day, before a broader pullback took bitcoin toward $71,500 in the following days.⁹ More recently, when it sold 3,588 BTC in early July, bitcoin absorbed the sale without panic and rallied back toward $63,800.¹⁰ That tells us the shock was in the breaking of the accumulation-only narrative, not in the physical supply itself. Once the market adjusted to the fact that Strategy was willing to sell, the marginal impact of further announcements diminished sharply.

The other frustration is regulation. The CLARITY Act is now losing momentum rather than gaining it. The bill remains stuck without a floor vote, and the path to passage looks increasingly narrow. The core disputes are still unresolved: law-enforcement objections around Section 604's exemption for non-custodial developers, ethics provisions linked to Trump's crypto income disclosures, and stablecoin yield language that conflicts with the GENIUS Act's prohibition on issuer-paid interest.¹¹ Bipartisan ethics talks have broken down, and even the two Democrats who supported the bill in committee, Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks, have made clear that this does not guarantee support on the floor.¹² The Senate returns on July 13 with only a few usable weeks before August recess, and floor time is already crowded.¹³ That is why prediction-market odds for passage in 2026 have fallen from 74% a month ago to roughly 48% now, though these odds have moved sharply within days and should be reconfirmed close to publication.¹⁴

The overall message is that the market remains under pressure, but not broken. Hawkish Fed minutes, renewed Iran stress and fading confidence in the CLARITY Act are all real headwinds. Against that, flows may be starting to turn, and the market appears far less vulnerable to Strategy-related selling than many assumed. For now, this still looks like a market in a fragile base-building phase rather than the start of a decisive new uptrend.

Sources

1. Axios, "Federal Reserve chairman Warsh tight-lipped on forward guidance," June 26, 2026

2. Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, June 17, 2026; StockTitan, "Fed Holds Rates June 2026; Dot Plot Flips to a Hike"

3. CNBC, "Core inflation hit an annual rate of 3.3% in April," May 28, 2026; CNBC, "PCE inflation report May 2026," June 25, 2026

4. BLS, "Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3 percent in May 2026"

5. CNBC, "Jobs report June 2026," July 2, 2026

6. Bitcoin Foundation News, "Bitcoin ETFs Post Record Week of Outflows — $8.2B," July 2026

7. Cryptonomist, "Bitcoin ETFs Inflows Signal Shift After Historic Outflow Streak," July 8, 2026 [figure needs reconfirmation]

8. Bitcoin Magazine / BitcoinTreasuries.net, July 2026

9. CoinDesk, "Strategy sold 32 BTC for $2.5 million in late May," June 1, 2026; KuCoin, "MicroStrategy Sells 32 BTC for $2.5M, Shares Drop 6%"

10. The Block, "Strategy sells 3,588 BTC for $216 million," July 6, 2026; FXStreet, July 6, 2026

11. crypto.news, "The 3 fights that decide the CLARITY Act: Ethics, DeFi, and $1.35B in yield," July 2026

12. TechTimes, "Senate Crypto Bill Misses July 4," July 4, 2026

13. Cryptonews.net, "Senate Urged to Vote on CLARITY Act Before August Recess," July 2026

14. Bloomingbit, "Polymarket Odds of CLARITY Act Becoming Law by Year-End Drop to 48% From 74%," July 2026