BTC predictions: which one(s) will be correct?

When Sir Isaac Newton spoke about ‘standing on the shoulders of giants’, he meant that he could benefit from the progress made by great scientists before his time. This proverb has been widely adopted since, and it can apply to retail investors who would like to take into account expert views when building their portfolios. This article summarises bitcoin price targets provided by a wide range of professional investors from mainstream finance and the crypto community who hold well-informed opinions about how the market might develop this year and in future.  

$150,000 by the end of 2024

Standard Chartered expects bitcoin to hit $150,000 by the end of 2024 according to the bank’s head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick. Kendrick blames slowing inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and tensions in the Middle East for the recent correction, but he believes that the cyclical nature (recurring patterns) of the bitcoin market, particularly after halving events, means that it should resume its upward trajectory. Standard Chartered is one of the most upbeat mainstream financial institutions regarding bitcoin’s long-term prospects, having set an equally optimistic price target of $250,000 by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, Kendrick also thinks flows into spot ETFs in the US will rise to between $50 and $100 billion by 2026.

$3.8 million by 2030

Ark Invest is one of the issuers that received approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a spot ETF in the US at the start of 2024. Cathie Wood, Ark’s CEO and a vocal crypto proponent, has an extremely bullish outlook for bitcoin, having predicted in January that the price will rise to $1.5 million by 2030. However, the company has significantly upgraded this outlook since spot ETFs launched. Analysis conducted by Ark and based on institutional investors allocating 5% of their overall portfolios to bitcoin suggests the price could increase to $3.8 million within the same time frame. In the shorter term, Wood believes the latest halving will act as a catalyst, telling the audience at the Bitcoin Investor Day conference that it will have a similar impact to previous events, like when bitcoin rose by more than 500% after the 2020 halving.

$100,000 by September 2024

Robert Kiyosaki is famous for writing the best-selling personal finance book Rich Dad, Poor Dad. At the end of March 2024, he announced on X (formerly Twitter) that he was topping up his holdings by 10 bitcoin in anticipation of the latest halving. His forecasts for this year have varied, starting at $300,000 but downgrading to $100,000 by September. In addition to the halving, Kiyosaki points to various macroeconomic factors supporting his investment thesis, including the level of national and consumer debt in the US, the risk of a property crash in China, and underperforming economies in Japan and Germany.    

$45,000 is bitcoin’s true value

JP Morgan is among the few dissenting voices about bitcoin’s price, suggesting it will fall after the halving. Analysis of open interest in bitcoin futures- the number of outstanding contracts that haven’t been settled- indicates that it’s in overbought territory (trading above its true value) and subject to a correction. The investment bank estimates bitcoin’s true value at $45,000 based on a comparison with global allocations to gold and taking into account its higher volatility. It also views bitcoin’s cost of production, projected at $42,000 after the latest halving, as a support level. JP Morgan’s influential CEO Jamie Dimon is a notorious bitcoin bear, having previously compared it to a pet rock that ‘does nothing’. 

$100,000, driven by the digital gold narrative

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of alternative asset manager Skybridge Capital, also believes that bitcoin could be worth $100,000, although investors need to take a long-term view and prepare to weather market fluctuations. Scaramucci told Bloomberg at the end of 2023 that he expects the biggest drivers to be the exponential growth of wallets and global adoption, as opposed to the launch of spot ETFs. He bases this thesis on bitcoin’s growing reputation as a store of value and with gold’s current market capitalisation at $15.533 trillion, there’s plenty of market share to claim. Incidentally, Scaramucci also thinks JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon will change his opinion of bitcoin once the regulatory landscape becomes clearer.

$100,000 coming soon

In a recent exchange on X, Adam Back, co-founder and CEO of blockchain technology company Blockstream, echoed Skybridge Capital’s thesis that the digital gold narrative will serve as a major catalyst for bitcoin. Black pointed out that many investors buying spot bitcoin ETFs are raising funds by selling gold ETFs, which should lower the latter’s market cap. Black had previously predicted that bitcoin would hit $100,000 before the latest halving. While it fell short, he believes it will reach this target sooner rather than later (without committing to a timeframe).

$90,000 this year followed by $150,000 in 2025

Bernstein, a leading Wall Street research firm and brokerage, increased its 2024 forecast by $10,000 to $90,000 in March, arguing that the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs will have a much stronger impact than the halving. When bitcoin dropped below $63,000 in March, the firm suggested this presented an opportunity to ‘buy the dip’, especially given it expects the price to hit $150,000 in 2025. Analysts also predict that the hash rate- a measure of the computational power used to validate transactions- will only fall by 7% after the latest halving compared with between 15% and 20% during previous events, which should support bitcoin miners with low operating costs. 

$250,000 in 2024

Tim Draper, founder of venture capitalist firm Draper Associates, blames the US government’s fear of bitcoin for his missed prediction that it would be worth $250,000 by 2023. Despite the continuing regulatory uncertainty, he believes that it could reach this valuation this year. Draper considers bitcoin superior to fiat currency because it keeps perfect records of transactions, and he also foresees a future where demand for the US dollar will dwindle and people will be able to use bitcoin to pay for everyday expenses like food and clothes. Draper previously claimed that growing adoption by women, who account for 80% of retail shopping, will serve as a major catalyst.