4 min readWeek 49 saw largely muted market action in indices, with mixed macro data that still leans toward a December Fed rate cut. A hawkish cut may limit the potential for a sustained risk-asset rally, while a more neutral or dovish tone on the path of future cuts would likely provide stronger support. Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) remained in focus after establishing a US$1.44bn cash reserve and entering into a dispute with MSCI over index inclusion. Digital-asset strategy stocks rebounded alongside a cryptocurrency uptick, though valuations remain well below their summer highs.
Week 49 key developments in blockchain equities:
Index performance: The Index fell 0.7% this week while Bitcoin traded largely flat as markets positioned ahead of next week’s December FOMC meeting. Macro data delivered a mixed signal: September core PCE matched expectations (2.8% YoY), real personal spending came in slightly soft (0.0% vs 0.1% expected), and weekly jobless claims surprised to the downside (191k vs 220k expected), reinforcing a picture of a cooling but still resilient economy.
Block index key movers: 7-day top performers: CleanSpark (+11.7%), Softbank (+9.0%), Sharplink Gaming (+8.9%) 7-day worst performers: Defi Technologies (-25.5%), CoinShares (-7.4%), Block Inc (-4.4%)
Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) has established a US$1.44bn dividend reserve after issuing 8,214,000 new shares and raising US$1,478.1m, providing an estimated 21 months of dividend coverage - This move comes as the company’s mNAV (market value relative to its Bitcoin holdings) trades at 0.93×, while its total enterprise value to Bitcoin ratio stands at 1.17×, levels that had raised concerns about potential Bitcoin sales. The cash reserve helps alleviate fears that Strategy would need to liquidate Bitcoin. However, MSCI’s review of whether to exclude companies with digital assets exceeding 50% of total assets could pressure mNAV further if passive funds are forced sellers, though this still may not necessitate Bitcoin disposals by Strategy. In our view, any future Bitcoin sales should be executed in a value-accretive manner, such as share repurchases when mNAV trades at a meaningful discount to showcase the benefit oof their active capital management.
Mining economics show a slight rebound – Bitcoin mining profitability has fallen sharply in recent weeks as network hashrate has held near record levels of approximately 1.1 ZH/s and difficulty has remained elevated at 149.3T. The recent rebound in Bitcoin’s price has helped lift hashprice to US$38.5/PH/s, a 13% increase from the US$34/PH/s low on November 20th, though still well below the mid-US$50s range seen earlier this year. Among index constituents, Core Scientific, Iris Energy, and Cipher Mining continue to signal the strongest intent to pivot portions of their fleets toward high-performance computing (HPC); however, for at least the next 12–18 months, traditional Bitcoin mining revenues will remain essential to funding their CAPEX and operating requirements. As a result, mining economics will continue to be a core driver of profitability, even as HPC strategies begin to take shape.
Other news: Index Constituent Galaxy Digital has expanded its institutional staking strategy by acquiring Alluvial Finance, the former development company behind Liquid Collective. Through the deal, Galaxy acquires Alluvial’s engineering team and on-chain expertise in-house. Cipher Mining’s client Fluidstack is reported to be raising US$700 million at a US$7 billion valuation. OSL Group announced plans to launch spot and derivatives digital-asset trading in Europe, expanding its regulated exchange footprint. Bank of America confirmed that its wealth-management platforms will begin allowing crypto ETF exposure in Q1 2026, marking a notable step toward mainstream adoption. Meanwhile, Circle’s Arc layer-1 blockchain went live on testnet, advancing the company’s strategy to build native settlement and interoperability infrastructure for USDC.
