1 min readCould we face more rate hikes? How could ongoing macroeconomic developments impact Bitcoin?
This week, non-farm payrolls in the US came in well above expectations at 336 thousand new jobs versus an expectation of 170 thousand – with broad improvement across most industrial sectors. However, hourly earnings were only 0.2 percent higher, versus an expectation of 0.3 percent.
This definitely scared the treasury market, as the yield on 10 year treasuries spiked to 4.8 percent (check) which has concerned the Federal Reserve and raises the likelihood of additional interest rate hikes. This could impact investors by increasing borrowing costs and potentially reducing the attractiveness of certain investments, notably risk assets.
There is a fine balance here for Bitcoin, the FED raising rates could weigh on prices, but so far, in the continued threat of rising rates it has been resilient. But concerns for the state of the bond market and banking sector, if the FED raises rates, could support Bitcoin. We've noticed the futures market getting increasingly bearish. Lastly, current out of sample trend lines suggest the current hashrate is well above the historical trendline and is likely to fall measurably - perhaps the halving will precipitate this fall.
