Market update | April 17th, 2026

Bitcoin poised for lift-off

Bitcoin’s rebound this week has been one of the more encouraging developments in the market, and the setup in perpetuals is particularly notable. Liquidity between current levels and US$80,000 remains remarkably thin, which means that if momentum continues, the move higher could be fast. Further positive developments around a potential Iran settlement, combined with a broader recovery in risk assets, would be the clearest near-term catalyst for that kind of move.

One of the most important signals this week is the shift in whale behaviour. After sustained selling since October 2025, we have now seen two consecutive weeks of net inflows from Bitcoin whales, the first time since last autumn. That matters. It is consistent with the four-year cycle thesis we have been discussing and suggests that large holders may be nearing the end of their distribution phase. If so, one of the most persistent overhangs on price may finally be easing.

Fund flows also improved materially. Digital asset investment products recorded US$520M of inflows this week so far, although the path was far from smooth. The week began on a weak footing, with nearly US$400M of outflows, before sentiment reversed sharply. Bitcoin year-to-date inflows now stand at roughly US$2.4B, while the overall total is around US$2.88B. That remains below the US$3.5B peak seen earlier this year, so the market has not yet fully recovered the flow losses recorded during the correction. Even so, three consecutive weeks of inflows is a constructive trend and points to improving institutional appetite.

Concerns related to quantum computing continue

Ethereum was the standout performer on the flows side. It attracted US$203M this week and has now moved back into net positive inflows year to date for the first time. That is a meaningful shift given how significantly Ethereum had been lagging Bitcoin in relative flow terms. By contrast, Solana has seen notable outflows both this week and over the month, reflecting a broader deterioration in sentiment around the asset.

One recurring concern that has resurfaced is quantum computing. Google recently disclosed a more efficient method for executing Shor’s algorithm, which in theory could shorten the timeline for breaking Bitcoin’s ECDSA cryptography. This remains a distant rather than immediate threat, but it has re-entered the discussion. Our research team is publishing a separate piece on the issue. On the mitigation side, BIP 360 has been proposed as a route to quantum-proof Bitcoin, most likely via a soft fork. A more controversial idea, BIP 361, would freeze Satoshi Nakamoto’s wallets and other addresses using vulnerable cryptography. That is unlikely to gain broad consensus because it runs against Bitcoin’s ethos, but it may still generate debate and media attention given the divergence of views within the core developer community.

The macro backdrop has been relatively quiet. Producer Price Index came in below expectations, but like CPI it has not yet fully reflected the recent move in oil, which should begin feeding through next month. With CPI still elevated, futures markets are now pricing in zero rate cuts for the rest of the year, although those expectations can change quickly.

Against that backdrop, Bitcoin’s resilience stands out. Since the onset of the Iran crisis, Bitcoin is up 18.8%, while equities have fallen and gold is down 7.4%. That relative outperformance strengthens the case that Bitcoin is increasingly being treated not just as a high beta risk asset, but as a distinct macro asset during periods of geopolitical stress and policy uncertainty.