2 minuti di letturaSentiment and market structure are improving
This week marks what appears to be a tentative stabilisation in crypto markets, with Bitcoin finding a floor after its intraday low of US$80,553 on 21 November. The subsequent recovery has coincided with comments from FOMC member John Williams, who noted that “there is room for a rate cut in the near term to move policy towards a more neutral stance”. In the absence of other meaningful catalysts, his remarks seem to have been the primary driver of the improvement in sentiment.
Despite this, on-chain flows reveal a still-fragile backdrop. The largest whale cohort, holding over 100,000 BTC, has sold roughly US$12.3B in the last month, keeping pressure on prices. Smaller whales in the 10,000 to 100,000 BTC band have partially offset this, adding approximately US$4.6B over the same period. The aggressive selling from the largest entities unnerved ETP investors, who withdrew US$5B in the past month. Yet this week has brought a notable shift with US$900 million in inflows, suggesting investors are responding positively to the prospect of policy easing.
Williams’ comments have sharpened focus on the December FOMC meeting, though he was careful to frame any potential cut as data-dependent. He described the current stance of policy as modestly restrictive, reinforcing the idea that rates remain high relative to neutral but may be poised to ease if labour-market and inflation dynamics justify it. Macro data yesterday offered support for that view, with weaker retail sales and a substantial miss in consumer confidence pointing to a softer consumer. PPI readings also indicated only minor inflationary pressures. Markets interpreted the overall mix as increasing the likelihood of a December cut.
Without macro data available, futures are pricing a new rate cut
Between now and the meeting, the key releases will be ISM Manufacturing on 29 November and Core PCE on 5 December. The more consequential data on jobs and inflation arrives annoyingly after the meeting – Nonfarm Payrolls on 16 December and CPI on 18 December. With no official jobs data due before the FOMC decision and uncertainties around the inflation release schedule, it is unsurprising that the futures market has flipped to 85% chance of a rate cut based on comments from one FED member.. Business surveys such as ADP and ISM continue to paint a gloomier picture than official statistics.
In crypto markets, Bitcoin dominance has drifted lower by around 1.5 percent this month, signalling that the wider market has not capitulated. Many large altcoins have held structure despite the drawdown. Part of the rebound reflects Bitcoin becoming deeply oversold, with momentum indicators reaching levels that have historically aligned with short-term reversals. Expectations for a December cut have added a tailwind, while the steep selling from 50,000 to 100,000 BTC wallets appears to be easing. The popular four-year cycle narrative resurfaced during the downturn, yet its statistical significance remains weak given the small sample size and improving macro backdrop.
A standout feature of this environment is the resilience of altcoins relative to Bitcoin. Historically, a selloff of this scale would have triggered broad-based capitulation, but many assets have held key levels and in some cases shown relative strength. Liquidity, however, has thinned since 10 October, which has amplified downside volatility and makes it unlikely that markets will press to new highs in the near term.
Funding rates remain skittish and positioning has not fully reset, but the overall market structure is improving gradually. If expectations for rate cuts continue to solidify and selling from large holders abates, the recent weakness may prove to be a temporary disruption rather than the start of a more significant downturn. For now, markets look to be consolidating rather than breaking down. Bitcoin has absorbed substantial forced supply, altcoins remain durable, and last week’s catalysts are already fading. This is a phase of the cycle that demands constant reassessment rather than commitment to any fixed narrative.
