Aggiornamento di mercato | 17 luglio 2026

Sentiment has turned, and macro is the reason why

We have just come through an eight-week bout of outflows totalling US$8B globally across all issuers, the worst run on record. Last week we saw US$287M¹ of inflows across all issuers, and this week looks likely to be a second positive week. It actually started negative before sentiment switched mid-week.

What switched it is a useful reminder of how tightly bitcoin is now tied to macro data. Tuesday (14 July 2026)'s CPI² print was a significant miss to the downside (-0.4% against expectations of -0.2%), prompting a modest bitcoin rally, a re-rating of interest rate expectations, and around US$250M of inflows³. Wednesday's PPI⁴ release was another significant downside miss (-0.3% against flat expectations), driving a further re-rating. To put the scale of that in perspective: markets had more than a full rate hike priced in for September. That has now halved. Daily flows across all assets and all issuers were US$218M on Tuesday and US$197M on Wednesday, with the focus predominantly on bitcoin.

Retail sales came in line with expectations yesterday. Gasoline prices were the primary driver of the fall in the inflation figures, and gasoline is a large component of retail sales, dragging down the overall figure. A slightly weaker economy could provide a further boost to bitcoin as we see a rerating in interest rate expectations.

The floor is likely in, but the upside is capped

Bitcoin was well bid and then saw a natural correction. We have said for some time that bitcoin has probably reached, or is close to, its floor. But we see no significant upside potential from here. A rate cut does not look probable at this stage and would be highly contingent on further macro weakening; one soft payroll print and one soft CPI print are not enough. Oil has already risen again on events in Iran, which could make next month's inflation picture materially uglier. We expect range trading, with a break above US$80,000 unlikely absent a meaningful shift in monetary policy expectations.

Investor positioning reflects that caution

Investor mentality is well illustrated by the fact that interest tends to peak when bitcoin trades near US$120,000 and thins out considerably at US$60,000. The dominant picture is that the current setup is prompting interest in adding positions, but caution prevails while sentiment remains broadly negative. Blockchain equities are the clearest area of interest for now.

Sources:
^{1 Bloomberg, CoinShares, data available as of 13th July 2026
2 US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 14 July 2026
3 Bloomberg, CoinShares, data available as of 16th July 2026
4 US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 15 July 2026}