Bitcoin is predictably popular in crisis-ridden Iran

Key takeaways

• Around 14 million Iranians, roughly one in six, use Bitcoin, with annual transaction volumes growing 11.8% year-on-year and now representing ~2.2% of Iranian GDP

• Bitcoin's value in crisis contexts goes beyond the theoretical: currency collapse, sanctions, and state hostility create conditions where a permissionless monetary protocol is not an investment thesis but a practical necessity

• Iran has arbitraged its heavily subsidised domestic energy into Bitcoin mining since 2019, giving the state a sanctions-resistant export conduit that is extremely difficult to disrupt from the outside

• Iranian hashrate is real but routinely overstated — Luxor estimates current share at ~0.8% (9 EH/s), and neither the June 2025 Twelve-Day War nor the February 2026 Operation Epic Fury strikes caused material hashrate disruption to the global network

• IRGC-linked addresses received over $3 billion in Q4 2025 alone, and transaction volumes from Iranian exchanges spiked 700% within minutes of the first February 2026 strikes—Bitcoin's primary role in the Iranian state context is sanctions evasion, not mining for state accumulation

• Bitcoin usage spikes predictably around every Iranian crisis event, with on-chain data showing sharp increases in self-custody withdrawals during protests, conflicts, and internet blackouts

• Gold traded at a discount in Dubai during the February 2026 crisis because it is hard to move meanwhile Bitcoin has traded at a premium in Tehran

• Each crisis adds another data point to an accumulating body of real-world evidence. The cultural memory of what works in extremis is not easily erased and the dataset is growing

Crisis is the ultimate proof of concept. Bitcoin is one of those technologies that people in high-functioning societies struggle to find a use for, and in a way, that makes sense. When the banking system works, the currency holds its value, and the state is not actively hostile to its citizens, the case for a permissionless monetary protocol is often theoretical.

For a large share of the global population, none of those conditions apply. The spectrum of dysfunction runs from the mundane, such as no access to basic banking, through state hostility toward minorities, activists, and dissidents, all the way to revolution and war. At that extreme end, Bitcoin's usefulness stops being theoretical. It becomes obvious in a way that no amount of study in peaceful times can fully replicate.

I have watched this pattern play out in Ukraine, Venezuela, and now Iran. In each case, the crisis does not create Bitcoin's value so much as it reveals it. This piece focuses on Iran: how Iranians are using Bitcoin in the face of currency collapse, sanctions, and war, and what that usage tells us about the technology's role when everything else has failed.

Good tools work for all people

Let’s begin by having a look at the sheer size of Bitcoin’s impact on the Iranian economy. According to Zoomit, Iranian Bitcoin adoption is among the highest in the world, with around 14m users, in a country of approximately 90m people. In terms of magnitude, Chainalysis estimates that the overall value of annual Iranian Bitcoin transactions has grown by 11.8% between 2024 and 2025 and now represents a whopping 2.2% of Iranian GDP.

It has long been known that Iran has been arbitraging its low energy prices by mining Bitcoin. The benefit is dual: First, Bitcoin mining is an easy way to monetise energy on the spot, removing the need for export infrastructure, and it is also an export conduit that is difficult to disrupt. Second, it provides access to US Dollars in a manner that is also incredibly difficult to prevent by outsiders.

Both civilians and the regime itself have taken advantage of this opportunity to avoid sanctions using cheap domestic resources. Especially lately, the opportunities provided by the Bitcoin technology stack has not gone unnoticed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

As of early 2026, most Iranian Bitcoin usage remains civilian, or it is at least not known to be regime linked. However, over the last few years, activity linked to the IRGC has grown enormously as a proportion of total usage. Given the sanctions-pressure maintained on the murderous theocratic regime, this shouldn’t come as much as a surprise. A key characteristic of freedom-preserving technologies is that they are by necessity available to everyone, also the bad guys.

Evading sanctions with Bitcoin is more or less a no-brainer, and illustrates the radical sovereignty this technology can offer.

Iranian mining is significant in this context, but often overstated

Luxor estimates Iran's current hashrate share at roughly 0.8%, approximately 9 EH/s, down from a possible peak of 7.5% in March 2021. Mining was officially legalised in 2019, with licensed operators required to sell mined Bitcoin to the central bank to finance sanctioned imports, and the IRGC is believed to control a substantial share of operations, according to Chainalysis. Because Iranian miners systematically use VPNs, Cambridge's IP-based methodology¹ estimating 0.12% Iranian hashrate almost certainly undercounts their activity, and the apparent collapse in Iran's measured share to near-zero in 2022 is widely regarded as a measurement artefact.

We acknowledge that it is very difficult to verify hashrate estimates in Iran, and that some sources have Iranian hashrate estimates as high as 40 or 50 EH/s, but in this case we believe Luxor probably has their finger closest to the pulse.

Despite widespread dramatic framing around the June 2025 Twelve-Day War and February 2026 Operation Epic Fury strikes, Iran was not a material cause of the hashrate declines that coincided with those events. NYDIG found "no supporting evidence" linking the June 2025 drop to the conflict, attributing it to a US heatwave driving curtailment among American miners, and a separate analysis concluded only around 3% of that decline was attributable to Iranian events. 

For February–March 2026, while Iranian mining did go substantially dark due to grid disruption, even a complete shutdown of 9 EH/s is structurally trivial in a ~1,000 EH/s network, and hard to even measure in the overall noise of the remaining market. The more significant dimension of Iran's Bitcoin activity is its broader crypto ecosystem, with IRGC-linked addresses receiving over $3 billion in Q4 2025 alone, and Elliptic found outgoing transaction volumes from Iranian exchanges spiked 700% within minutes of the first February 2026 strikes, confirming Bitcoin's main role as a sanctions escape valve.

Bitcoin usage spikes right when things get hairy

We can directly observe that Bitcoin usage increases in times of crises. Both around the time of the 12-day war in the summer of 2025, and during the more recent military action, we can observe clear patterns of increased usage right after the events.

In times such as these we often get asked why bitcoin isn’t trading like a safe haven. The answer is that bitcoin is being used as a safe haven by some people but remains a speculative risk asset to a higher number of others. People use bitcoin for different things and the way they interact with the market will depend on their own needs and views. Bitcoin’s market price is a result of the compound average of all these actions.

The fact is that most people still use bitcoin as a speculative investment, but other people use bitcoin as their literal lifeline, and when they do, it’s always there for them.

One of the most illuminating market phenomena observed during this crisis is that gold has been trading at a discount in Dubai² (because it’s hard to move), and bitcoin has been trading at a premium³ in Tehran during its periods of hyperinflation.

It is the fundamental properties of Bitcoin that makes it so useful in these situations, and we believe these properties will slowly elevate Bitcoin into a global store of value over the long arc of time. Even if bitcoin isn’t yet behaving exactly like you might have hoped or expected in a given situation, the art of investment isn’t to pile in on something when everyone is in full agreement on the future of an asset, the art is to predict where something is headed before it actually gets there.

You don't need a physics degree to appreciate gravity

It’s not necessary to understand orbital mechanics to be confident the sun will rise tomorrow. You just need to have watched it happen enough times. The certainty can be rational simply by being earned through repetition, even if not derived from first principles.

The same logic applies here. Every crisis that drives people toward Bitcoin, and away from currencies, banks, and states that have failed them, adds another observation to the dataset. Ukraine. Venezuela. Iran. Each one updates the prior. Each one leaves behind a larger population who know from direct experience, rather than theoretical argument, what this technology is actually for.

Crises pass. The cultural memory of what works tends to remain. As the record accumulates, the cultural imprint deepens, and the case for Bitcoin stops needing to be made. It has already been demonstrated.

¹ Cambridge centre of alternative finance

² Dubai gold trades at discount to London due to flight disruptions, Reuters, 9 March 2026

³ Why the Iranian Rial Collapse Turned Bitcoin into a Global Survival Asset, GetPerk, 16 January 2026