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Markets are starved of data and are effectively stabbing in the dark. Risk assets have broadly sold off, with the Nasdaq down 2.3% over the past 24 hours and Bitcoin falling convincingly below the US$100k mark at the time of writing. Even traditional safe havens such as gold are selling off, highlighting the irrational nature of some recent moves. Fears of a tech bubble may be a contributing factor, but we have also seen a sharp repricing in expectations for a December rate cut. The probability has dropped from 70% a week ago to a fifty-fifty chance today. This is puzzling given that there have been no recent FOMC member comments or macro data releases that would justify such a shift.
In fact, alternative employment indicators point to a weakening labour market, including Challenger job cuts and the new weekly ADP employment data. The White House has indicated that October payrolls may never be released, even though they are crucial for assessing the likelihood of a December rate cut and therefore the outlook for Bitcoin. The November payrolls report is nominally scheduled for 5 December, although even this date has not yet been confirmed by the BLS.
With so few macro data points available, the crypto market is leaning more heavily on on-chain signals. Large holders have sold more than US$20B of Bitcoin over the past month alone, which is likely the main driver behind recent price weakness. This is now spilling over into the ETP market, which has seen an additional US$1.4B of outflows over the past week. Total outflows over the past three weeks have reached US$2.6B, the largest since March 2025.
BTC short-term holders under water
On-chain, we also see evidence of a continued, more general heavy sell-side pressure, with daily realised value exceeding $3B over the last week or so. There is also evidence of elevated levels of selling by long-term holders, with more than 500,000 btc revived from the 5-year+ band over the course of 2025. Out of these coins, 123,600 btc have come out of UTXOs older than 10 years - a new annual record.
While this drawdown is not historically large compared to previous bull markets, at least thus far, we’re sitting at a precarious point right now. At the $96,000 price level, 100% of short term holders (154 days holding period or less) are under water—and most of the current realised supply value is in the hands of short term holders. Long term holders are better off, with 75% or so remaining in profit, but this is a top-heavy configuration that risks falling off to the downside as short term holders are tempted to panic sell.
