Market update - January 30th, 2026

Bitcoin still trailing precious metals amid a fragile US backdrop

Bitcoin continues to trade out of sync with the broader debasement narrative that has driven substantial gains across precious metals since the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot at Jackson Hole in August 2025. While this divergence is frustrating for Bitcoin bulls in the near term, it may ultimately present an attractive opportunity for investors with a medium-term horizon.

Since the Fed shifted decisively towards easing, delivering three rate cuts alongside increasingly accommodative guidance, gold, silver, and platinum have all performed strongly. This rally has been supported not only by monetary policy but also by rising geopolitical risk and sustained central bank buying, particularly from China. An increasingly notable development is the participation of crypto-native investors in this trade. On platforms such as Hyperliquid, digital asset traders are actively trading precious metals, with volumes in gold, silver, and copper up more than 2,100 percent year to date. Yesterday alone, over US$1.9B was traded on the platform. Despite this growing appetite for hard assets, Bitcoin has so far been left behind.

Several factors help explain this underperformance. First, investor flow dynamics remain unfavourable. Since October, large Bitcoin holders have sold approximately US$29B, consistent with historical patterns observed mid-way through the halving cycle, where distribution typically lasts six to nine months. Although smaller holders have been accumulating, this has not been sufficient to absorb selling pressure. At the same time, institutional flows into digital asset ETPs remain subdued, seeing outflows of US$440M year to date.

Second, Bitcoin has become increasingly dislocated from global M2 money supply growth, a relationship that has historically tracked closely. Either investors have fundamentally misjudged this linkage or global liquidity is about to contract sharply. Given current policy settings, the latter appears unlikely, suggesting Bitcoin is undervalued relative to prevailing monetary conditions.

Geopolitical risk also plays a role. Bitcoin’s hybrid identity as both a risk asset and a store of value tends to work against it during periods of acute geopolitical stress. Rising oil prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East, including naval deployments towards Iran, have weighed on broader risk sentiment and favoured traditional safe havens such as gold.

The Clarity Act is still stagnating 

Regulatory uncertainty remains another headwind. Expectations for progress on the Clarity Act have not been met, and while discussions between banks, Coinbase, and the White House around staking yields continue, meaningful legislative clarity remains elusive, an agreement is close though it doesn't look promising for stablecoin issuers to deliver yield.

Political dynamics in the US further limit near-term catalysts. The Trump administration’s aggressive posture towards the Federal Reserve has constrained its own influence, with legal challenges to sitting governors unlikely to succeed and limited scope to reshape the Fed’s balance of power. As a result, a meaningful policy-driven catalyst for Bitcoin appears unlikely before mid-2026.

Looking ahead, we expect choppy and range-bound price action over the next three to six months, with limited upside above US$100,000. However, the medium-term outlook remains constructive. Monetary conditions remain loose, currency debasement concerns persist, whale selling is likely to exhaust by mid-2026, and historical liquidity relationships point to significant catch-up potential.

Paradoxically, Bitcoin may now represent the most compelling debasement trade. Precious metals have already priced in much of the policy shift, while Bitcoin has not. For patient investors, this disconnect may prove to be the opportunity rather than the risk.