Market update - September 25th, 2026

Bitcoin broke US$80k as yields hit a nineteen-year high

Digital assets have shown surprising resilience over the past week. Last week's hawkish message from the Federal Reserve and the failure of the CLARITY Act in the Senate left a backdrop that looked difficult: inflation is still too high, monetary policy is still restrictive, and the legislative route to a US market structure framework has stalled. Yet prices rallied rather than rolled over. Bitcoin recovered from around US$75k, gaining roughly 13% on the week, traded above US$87k on 23 September and settled near US$84k.¹ That is a decisive move through the US$80k level we flagged last week as needing a catalyst.

In our view this does not mean crypto has decoupled from macro. The move reflects clearer regulatory ground, continued accumulation by large holders, strong fund inflows, and growing concern over the sustainability of US fiscal and monetary policy. The SEC framework is now the operative one

The CLARITY Act fell short of the sixty votes needed to advance, with the Senate rejecting the cloture motion 49 to 50 on 15 September.² Read narrowly, that is a setback. Read practically, it changes less than the headline suggests, because the Commission had already set out its own framework. In March the SEC published a taxonomy covering digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, stablecoins and digital securities, and addressed how securities law applies to staking, to airdrops, and to wrapped non-security assets.² That framework was drafted as a companion to legislation. With the legislation stalled, it becomes the operative regime rather than a placeholder, and both the SEC and the CFTC retain the authority to keep building on it. What has been settled is not the rules themselves but who writes them, and for now the answer is the regulators.

Flows have been the more measurable support. Our data show around US$3.5B of inflows into digital asset investment products across the industry over the last five trading days, a sharp reversal from the redemptions recorded in the middle of the month. Accumulation by large holders has continued since August, although at relatively modest levels.^{[source needed]} Oil has helped too: Brent has fallen back below US$100 a barrel after five consecutive sessions of losses, easing some of the immediate inflation pressure.¹

The more interesting development, however, is how crypto has behaved in the face of renewed hawkishness. US PMI data came in stronger than expected, reinforcing the view that economic activity remains robust, while oil prices remain elevated. Fed officials also struck a firmer tone. Michael Barr highlighted rising inflation risks and a reduced threat from the labour market, while Austan Goolsbee warned that the energy shock could lead to more persistent inflation. Markets responded sharply, with the implied probability of an October rate hike rising to around 70%.

Treasury yields left less room for interpretation. The ten-year reached 5.12% on 23 September, its highest level since 2007.¹ In a conventional macro framework this is a significant headwind for Bitcoin. Higher yields make sovereign bonds more attractive and tighten financial conditions, and a more hawkish Fed typically weighs on liquidity-sensitive assets. Bitcoin did weaken intraday from its highs, but far less than the scale of the repricing would normally imply, and it finished the week well above where it started.

The framework, not the level

This leaves the Fed and Treasury in an increasingly difficult position. If inflation remains elevated, the Fed may feel compelled to tighten further. But higher rates put more pressure on government finances and Treasury markets. If yields continue rising, the probability of more aggressive intervention also increases, whether through larger Treasury purchases or some other attempt to suppress long-end yields.

That remains a tail risk rather than our base case, but it is increasingly relevant. The most striking feature of the past week has been the combination of strong inflows and positive price momentum in the face of a much more hawkish rates backdrop. Crypto has not decoupled from macro. Rather, the market appears to be shifting from worrying purely about rates to worrying about whether the policy framework supporting those rates is itself sustainable.

Notes

1. Market and price data, 23 to 24 September 2026: US ten-year Treasury yield; Brent crude; Bitcoin spot; US CPI for August 2026 (Bureau of Labor Statistics); Bloomberg 

2. US Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act, 15 September 2026; US Securities and Exchange Commission digital asset taxonomy, March 2026