ETF
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The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 3.2% in July compared to a year ago.
This is the slowest pace since early 2021. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2%, a slight uptick from June’s surprisingly low reading. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2%, a slight uptick from June’s surprisingly low reading.
Retail sales data highlighted that consumer spending was stronger than expected, reflecting resilience in the economy.
However, these data points did little to alter overall expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts in the coming months. Futures trading continues to indicate a full percentage point of rate cuts by year-end, though the odds of a 50-basis-point reduction in September have dropped to below 50%, down from a greater-than-even chance earlier in the week. Bitcoin investors had anticipated lower inflation, as reflected in price reactions.
In the political arena, a potential second term for Trump could have significant implications for Bitcoin. His protectionist policies might weaken the U.S. dollar, indirectly boosting Bitcoin as a hedge. Conversely, Vice President Harris, while possibly more cautious on crypto, could foster a more balanced regulatory approach compared to the current administration. We have written about this in detail in our blog.
