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Private payroll growth has slowed sharply.
Private payroll growth has slowed sharply, falling to just 100K last month, half that 6 months ago, with NFIB data signalling more potential declines ahead.
The dip in August’s unemployment rate was driven by temporary layoffs unwinding, but the broader trend is pointing upward. Despite this, FOMC members, including Waller and Williams, seem to be leaning towards a cautious 25bp rate cut this month. Waller remarked that any rate cuts would be done “carefully”. Williams echoed a similar sentiment, stating rates would lower "over time" as the Fed’s policy remains well-positioned.
In the recent Presidential debate, Bitcoin served as a real-time gauge of the public's reaction, with market movements indicating less crypto-friendly Kamala Harris as the winner, as reflected in the Polymarket data. Historically, September has been a weak month for Bitcoin, with average returns of -4.9%. Recently, digital asset investment products saw outflows totalling US$726m, driven by stronger-than-expected macroeconomic data weighing opn the prospects of a rate cut larger than 25bp.
Ethereum saw outflows totalling US$98m, which was almost solely from the incumbent Grayscale Trust, while inflows from the newly issued ETFs have almost completely dried up. Conversely, Solana saw the largest inflows of any asset totalling US$6.2m. Eth is not winning investors hearts and minds at the moment.
