Market update - November 6th, 2026

Bitcoin, the AI sell-off and October payrolls 

Bitcoin had initially taken the Democratic sweep relatively calmly, which is perhaps unsurprising given markets had been rehearsing the outcome for weeks. The more disruptive move came yesterday, when the AI trade finally wobbled hard enough to drag almost everything else with it. The Nasdaq fell 5.5%, the Nasdaq 100 6.4% and semiconductors 12%, while Bitcoin fell just over 5%. More than US$1B of leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in the process. The weakness was particularly acute among Bitcoin miners that have increasingly repositioned themselves as AI and data-centre plays, with several falling by double digits. Highlighting that this looks less like a crypto-specific deterioration and more like Bitcoin becoming collateral damage in a broader de-risking of the technology trade.

The election itself still looks more relevant for the pace of crypto reform rather than specifically for Bitcoin’s medium-term direction. The CLARITY Act now faces a harder path, while Democratic control gives the party greater influence over committee agendas, appointments and investigations into Trump-linked crypto ventures. But The CLARITY Act is also becoming less important than it once was. The GENIUS Act is already law, while the SEC and CFTC have continued to provide regulatory pathways within their existing powers. Congress is therefore no longer the only route to progress. The CLARITY Act would still provide more durable statutory certainty, particularly for Ethereum, DeFi and token issuers, but its absence no longer amounts to regulatory paralysis.

The consequences should vary considerably across the market. Bitcoin is relatively insulated because its regulatory status is already well established. US exchanges, token issuers and businesses dependent on new permissions have more at stake. Established, compliant operators could even benefit if political scrutiny falls disproportionately on weaker competitors. Among listed crypto equities, miners remain more complicated. Their existing power and data-centre infrastructure makes them attractive to AI hyperscalers, but that same exposure now leaves them vulnerable when the AI trade itself comes under pressure.

Oil has also fallen sharply as hopes for progress in US-Iran talks have improved, taking some pressure off inflation expectations. That looked supportive for rates yesterday, especially as the equity sell-off drove demand into Treasuries and pulled expectations for a December hike lower. The relief did not last long. Today’s October payroll report came in at 165,000, massively above the roughly 65,000 consensus, while unemployment edged down to 4.1%. Professional and business services, healthcare and transportation all added jobs. The labour market is clearly stronger than the market had assumed.

The latest payrolls data reinforces the Fed’s hawkish stance

That is an awkward result for Bitcoin with yesterday’s tech rout briefly giving markets reason to think the Fed might be able to soften its stance, particularly with oil falling and financial conditions tightening through equities. Today’s payroll beat pushes back in the opposite direction. With inflation still elevated, a labour market adding 165,000 jobs gives the Fed considerably less reason to worry about growth and more room to focus on price stability. Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to precisely this sort of repricing in short-term rate expectations.

For crypto policy, the election result is not game over, there was bipartisan support for The CLARITY Act before the vote, and stablecoins still provide a useful additional source of demand for US Treasuries at a time when fiscal pressures remain uncomfortable. The administration also retains substantial executive authority. Less legislative freedom does not necessarily mean less policy influence, and a frustrated president may lean more heavily on foreign policy and executive action, hardly a recipe for lower market volatility.

So the picture is more complicated than it looked immediately after the election. Political uncertainty has fallen, oil is moving in the right direction and regulatory progress can continue without The CLARITY Act. Against that, yesterday’s AI sell-off exposed how intertwined crypto has become with the broader technology and data-centre trade, while today’s payroll number has restored some of the hawkish macro pressure. For Bitcoin, real yields, dollar liquidity and ETP flows still matter more than the composition of Congress. The election changes the political backdrop, but the Fed still holds the more important cards.

Sources

1. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation, October 2026, released 6 Nov 2026

2. CoinDesk, AI-led technology and crypto sell-off, 5-6 Nov 2026

3. Federal Reserve / CME FedWatch, December rate expectations, 5-6 Nov 2026

4. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, JOLTS, September 2026

5. S&P Global, US PMI, October 2026