Equities update - October 30th 2026

Week 44 brought further equity-market volatility as disappointing mega-cap technology updates and the Fed’s hawkish hold weighed on risk appetite. The Fed maintained rates at 3.75–4.00%, while firmer PCE inflation kept the December FOMC meeting a live at 76% odds of a hike down from 85% at the beginning of the week. Higher oil prices, supported by renewed threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, added to inflation concerns. Gold also weakened as expectations of higher interest rates increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, illustrating how inflation risks can complicate its defensive role. Concerns over the cash-flow impact of substantial AI spending added pressure to technology shares and broader equities, increasing scrutiny of the financing assumptions supporting the infrastructure buildout. On the corporate front, ICE’s agreement to bring Hyperliquid-based markets into a regulated US framework, alongside further stablecoin initiatives from Ripple and SBI, demonstrated the continuing integration of blockchain infrastructure with traditional finance. Listed-platform earnings also showed revenues diversifying beyond crypto trading, while the Binance and Polymarket breaches reinforced the importance of custody, governance and the investment vehicle used to access the sector.

Week 44 Key Developments in Blockchain Equities:

• Index Performance: The Index declined -2.6%, compared with a -4.5% fall in Bitcoin, as persistent inflation and renewed pressure on technology shares weighed on risk appetite. The FOMC held interest rates at 3.75–4.00%, although two officials favoured a 25bp increase, keeping the prospect of further tightening in focus. September PCE inflation accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year, with core inflation at 3.1%, reinforcing concerns that price pressures remain above the Fed’s target. Resilient economic growth and higher oil prices amid renewed Middle East tensions further complicated the inflation outlook. Meanwhile, disappointing updates from Alphabet and Amazon added pressure to the technology trade, as investors scrutinised the impact of substantial AI capital expenditure on cash generation and the timing of investment returns. Weakness in these heavily weighted companies also weighed on broader equity indices.

• Block Index Key Movers: 7-day top performers: Hyperliquid Strategies (+41.6%), Galaxy Digital (+18.6%), AMD (+11.5%) 7-day worst performers: Nu Holdings (-18.2%), GMO Internet (-13.2%), MercadoLibre (-9.0%) 

• ICE announces agreement to bring Hyperliquid-based perpetual futures to the US – ICE, the parent of the New York Stock Exchange, announced an agreement with Trade[XYZ] to establish US-regulated perpetual futures markets built on Hyperliquid. ICE would provide the regulated market and clearing framework, Trade[XYZ] would contribute product design and deployment expertise, and Hyperliquid would supply the underlying blockchain infrastructure, with customer access expected through brokers and futures commission merchants. The agreement marks a significant step in the convergence of traditional finance and crypto infrastructure, with an established exchange operator adopting crypto rails to expand how financial assets are traded. The proposed market would offer around-the-clock exposure across equities, commodities, currencies and crypto, combining onchain trading capabilities with established distribution and regulatory oversight. Subject to approvals, this could open a new retail growth channel operating separately from ICE’s existing institutional franchise.

• Stanley Druckenmiller’s public backing reinforces the significance of the announcement. He confirmed an investment in Trade[XYZ] and said he looked forward to using its product to enhance his investment process. Separately, Duquesne Family Office reported a holding in index constituent Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) valued at approximately US$23m as of 30 June 2026. For PURR, the potential benefit comes through its HYPE token treasury and staking operations. Broader adoption of Hyperliquid could increase trading activity and fee generation, potentially supporting HYPE’s economics and the value of PURR’s holdings. The agreement therefore strengthens the commercial adoption thesis behind PURR, although the eventual equity benefit will depend on the scale of adoption and how economic value accrues to HYPE.

• Binance’s US$6.3bn hack and Polymarket breach reinforce the case for listed blockchain equities - The security incidents at Binance and Polymarket on 29 October reinforce the importance of how investors access the digital-asset ecosystem. Binance estimated the impact at approximately US$6.3bn and pledged to cover losses through its SAFU fund and company resources. Polymarket temporarily halted its international platform following a third-party security breach and also promised reimbursement. Both incidents highlight the operational and counterparty risks that can accompany holding funds directly on trading platforms.

• Blockchain equities provide a route to participate in the industry’s growth through an established securities framework. Investors can hold shares through regulated brokers and custodians, with applicable client-asset protections, while assessing businesses through published audited financial statements, corporate governance and ongoing disclosure requirements. US domestic issuers, for example, generally must disclose material cybersecurity incidents within four business days of determining materiality. These arrangements provide a framework for scrutiny and accountability without requiring investors to manage private keys or maintain balances on crypto trading platforms.

• The week’s results also demonstrated how listed businesses are monetising demand across the ecosystem. Coinbase reported prediction-market revenue exceeding US$173m of quarterly event-contract revenue. Visa’s annualised stablecoin settlement volume exceeding US$25bn provided further evidence of adoption within established financial infrastructure. For equity investors, the opportunity is to participate in the revenues and earnings generated by these activities.

• Earnings Recap – Key Holdings:

• Coinbase, Standard Chartered, Mastercard, Galaxy Digital – Positive

• Samsung Electronics, Strategy Inc, Robinhood – Mixed

• Flow Traders, PayPal - Negative

Other news - Index constituents:

• SBI Holdings announced several initiatives connecting stablecoins with asset management, banking and cross-border payments. Alongside BlackRock and Startale, it signed an MOU to explore linking tokenised money-market funds with JPYSC, its yen-denominated trust-type stablecoin. SBI also agreed a strategic alliance and preliminary framework for a Japanese joint venture with Cross River Bank’s parent, CRB Group, covering tokenised loans, cross-border payments and agentic commerce, alongside a proposed strategic investment and potential integration of JPYSC. Separately, SBI announced a capital and business alliance with Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group to develop services using stablecoins and tokenised assets, and participated in PhotonPay’s US$65bn of annualised platform-wide transaction volume. Together, these developments broaden SBI’s potential role across asset management, distribution and payment infrastructure, although several initiatives remain exploratory or subject to final agreements and regulatory approvals.

• Circle and ACI announced a collaboration to demonstrate USDC settlement within existing banking and payments infrastructure, initially in Colombia. The work combines Circle’s infrastructure with ACI Connetic and builds around ACI’s role in Bre-B, Colombia’s interoperable instant-payments ecosystem. The opportunity is to embed stablecoins within established financial-institution workflows.

• Bullish advanced its tokenised securities strategy with the addition of Qube Research & Technologies, Vertalo and zerohash to the Issuer Sponsored Token Coalition strengthens Bullish’s efforts to build an ecosystem spanning tokenised securities issuance, shareholder registration and trading. Co-founded with Equiniti, the coalition is developing standards that connect tokenised shares with official shareholder records, preserving investors’ dividend and voting rights. This supports the strategic rationale behind Bullish’s proposed acquisition of Equiniti: combining issuer relationships and registry capabilities with Bullish’s exchange infrastructure.

• Galaxy applied to the OCC to establish Galaxy National Bank. If approved, it would bring digital-asset custody, trading, staking and fiduciary investment advisory services under a federal trust framework. A national structure could support broader institutional relationships and simplify the regulatory architecture around these services.

• IREN and Wingspire Equipment Finance closed US$363m of financing against revenue-generating GPU servers and networking equipment. The six-lender group included commitments from Eldridge Capital Management and Silver Point Capital. The transaction releases capital already invested in deployed infrastructure backed by multi-year customer contracts. 

• Ripple expanded RLUSD distribution across Coinbase Prime, Exchange and the retail app, with support across XRPL, Base and Ethereum. Global Exchange access and collateral functionality are to follow. RLUSD is also live on Robinhood Chain and Bitstamp, with Robinhood app access expected later this year. Robinhood plans to integrate Ripple Treasury, while the partnership also extends institutional financing and market access through Ripple Prime.

• HIVE’s BUZZ subsidiary agreed approximately US$129m of equipment financing at a fixed 9% rate over three years, with principal and interest amortising during the term. The equipment supports the previously announced three-year Cohere contract. Asset security, limited recourse support and an equity pledge underpin the facility.

• Soneium backed by Sony Group, outlined plans for an ecosystem token and introduced ipUSD and IP Vault, with access scheduled to open on 28 October. The vault offers eligible users exposure to a US$549m Partners Group royalties fund tokenised by Asseto; this is the underlying fund’s size. The initiative connects financial infrastructure with entertainment and intellectual property, although customer adoption and the contribution to Sony’s earnings remain early considerations.

• Nu Holdings and MercadoLibre – Brazil election repricing: Lula’s surprise runoff victory triggered a sharp reversal in Brazilian markets, with the Bovespa closing down 13.9% on Monday and the real falling 8.1% against the dollar. For Nu and MercadoLibre, the immediate implications include country risk, FX translation, credit conditions and consumer demand, which can affect group earnings independently of digital-asset initiatives.

Other news – Non - Index constituents:

• Visa reported revenue of US$12.1bn, and adjusted EPS of US$3.48. Management described more than US$25bn of annualised stablecoin settlement volume, over 225 stablecoin-linked card programmes and commercial production for Visa Direct’s stablecoin prefunding. These disclosures demonstrate adoption within an existing distribution network.

• Aviva Investors launched a tokenised share class of its GBP22bn Sterling Liquidity Fund on XRPL with an initial GBP50m investment. The development extends institutional cash-management applications, with the commercial opportunity resting on distribution, servicing and assets retained in the new share class.

• BNY and Ripple expanded their collaboration across institutional custody and potential tokenised trade finance. The work aims to connect assets with payments and collateral workflows. For BNY, the commercial question is whether these capabilities deepen custody, servicing and financing relationships sufficiently to generate recurring fees.