Bitcoin's TAM model – 2025 edition

Executive summary

A TAM model is often used to estimate the maximum opportunity of a product or service, assuming 100% capture of a particular market. It’s a top-down sizing exercise, very popular in startup pitch decks or business development strategy. It goes something like: look at the overall demand in ‘X’ market, now let’s make some reasonable assumptions — like what segments are attainable, on what timeline, at what cost — and then everyone is on the same page as to what the opportunity is, to ultimately assess the chances of success for the product/service in question.

The bitcoin community, including us, have often used TAM (Total Addressable Market) models to present the potential it has to compete as an emerging form of money. It’s a simple way to communicate the behemoth size of monetary markets, and specifically with assets used as a storehold of wealth. After seeing the sheer size of the opportunity, it then becomes clear that even capturing small portions would be very lucrative for investors. Conversations can then turn to the fun stuff — what is actually attainable, what makes bitcoin competitive, what are reasonable timelines, what are the risks, and anything under the umbrella of will bitcoin capture a greater share of monetary assets.

We made our first TAM model in early 2021 as part of a larger bitcoin valuation series, and again in late 2022, updating our numbers and adding more complexity to the model. Finding it still relevant, this report is our next iteration.

Last time around was ironically the bottom of a cyclical bear market, just after the public collapse of FTX in November 2022. The reverberations of which led to company after company entering bankruptcy while the whole of digital assets crashed. Somewhere among the headlines and at around a $17k bitcoin price, we put out our report, estimating bitcoin could reach $169k in 2025. Now three years later, bitcoin has just touched $123k, and we’re glad to see our model wasn’t as loony as it once appeared.

This 2025 update builds upon the previous with the following changes:

• Updated monetary pool sizes using 2025 data from the World Gold Council, Trading Economics, Bloomberg, and Glassnode.

• Updated demand assumptions based on changing investor behaviors, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic shifts.

• Updated bitcoin supply curve based on the actual coins released since 2022 and the expectations of future supply release.

Bitcoin’s share of monetary markets remains modest at just 1.1% as of June 2025. Our overall conclusion remains the same: capturing incremental share of any segment of monetary markets would be increasingly lucrative for long-term investors. 

Contextual update: 2022–2025

A lot has happened in the past 3 years, we do our best to summarize the main developments below:

Macro environment

Rising sovereign debt loads and fiscal dominance

Government debt levels have increased substantially globally, driven by pandemic-era spending, rising interest costs, and expanding welfare and defense budgets. In the U.S., interest payments on the national debt are on track to surpass military spending and medicare in the next three years. Investors are increasingly wary of the long-term sustainability of sovereign debt, particularly as the The Big Beautiful Bill increases 10-year spending plans and refinancing at higher rates becomes a structural issue. 

Inflation volatility and rate cycle uncertainty

Since late 2022, inflation has remained stubbornly above central bank targets in many developed economies. While the headline numbers have come down from their peaks, core inflation has proven more persistent, driven by services and wage pressures. Currently there’s a lack of consensus for U.S. inflation expectations due to tariff impact uncertainty. Interest rate cycles, best described in our opinion as rapid hikes and delayed cuts, along with erratic government actions have introduced a new layer of policy unpredictability.

USD dominance remains, but neutral alternatives are gaining strategic appeal

The U.S. dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve and trade currency, backed by deep capital markets, a history of trust, and global network effects. However, its dominance is not an indefinite guarantee. The freezing of Russian reserves in 2022 may become a standout event in economic history, demonstrating that dollar-denominated assets can be politicized and controlled. The near-term impact has been an accelerated effort, particularly among BRICS and various emerging market countries, to reduce exposure to the U.S. financial system. Countries are both diversifying reserves and seeking alternative settlement rails. On global crypto rails however, the USD through stablecoins is rapidly growing in adoption.

Gold’s resurgence

Gold accumulation is a popular trend, including with central banks and in particular China and emerging market countries. In 2022 and 2023, central bank gold purchases hit multi-decade highs, as a demonstrated desire for neutral reserve assets amid rising geopolitical uncertainty. Gold’s price has steadily hit new all-time highs in nominal terms throughout 2025, further validating its role as a hedge against both inflation and political risk. The narrative around gold, in our opinion, is less about inflation however and more about an increasing appetite for diversification through alternative assets and its separation from government action.

Regulatory landscape

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF approval opened the institutional floodgates

The U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs approved in January 2024 have found unparalleled success. Record-breaking net inflows confirmed what futures-based ETFs foreshadowed in 2021: demand for a compliant, liquid, and familiar way to gain direct bitcoin exposure. Bitcoin is increasingly receiving allocations from retail and high net worths, while under serious consideration by traditional portfolio managers and retirement planners at scale. Year two of these products is on pace to attract more net inflows than year one.

U.S. regulators have shifted toward constructive engagement

U.S. regulatory agencies have moved from enforcement actions and a posture of uncertainty to cautious support. The SEC’s ETF approvals, FASB’s adoption of fair value accounting, the rollback of SAB 121, a change in digital asset 401(k) guidance, inclusion in mortgage asset qualifications – all within the past two years have unshackled bitcoin in the U.S from a legal and operational standpoint. In 2022 and 2023, many U.S. companies conducting business with digital assets received Wells Notice from the SEC and/or struggled to maintain banking relationships. It’s increasingly likely this treatment is in the past and that this current time period will later be characterized as bitcoin’s integration with the U.S. financial system.

Global regulatory fragmentation persists, frameworks continue to emerge

The global regulatory landscape is developing on a case by case basis. Brazil, the UAE, Singapore, and Hong Kong have implemented or proposed regulations that legitimize digital assets. These regions are positioning themselves as hubs for crypto finance, seeking to draw capital and talent. In the U.K., while a regulatory framework (MiCA) is under discussion, delays and ambiguity have frustrated market participants. Meanwhile, jurisdictions like India continue to impose stringent tax policies and China maintains a blanket ban on most crypto activities.

Bitcoin usage

Bitcoin continues to mature and see real use as a:

Speculative vehicle

Speculation remains a core driver of adoption globally, as it has since bitcoin’s earliest days. It offers an easily accessible and liquid way to exit weakening local currencies. It has a tremendous history of performance, and it has been particularly compelling in places with capital controls, instances of economic crisis, and limited financial markets. 

Corporate treasury investment

While the overwhelming majority of traditional companies remain sidelined, a growing number of businesses globally have begun to mirror MicroStrategy’s approach: raising capital through debt or equity markets to accumulate bitcoin, as opposed to funding purchases directly from cash flow. In the first half of 2025, 64 new companies adopted bitcoin treasury strategies. Altogether, 134 publicly listed firms hold 245k BTC.

Portfolio diversifier

Bitcoin is increasingly recognized by professional investors for its uncorrelated return profile. It is now well documented that adding bitcoin to a diversified portfolio can improve risk-adjusted performance. In our April 2025 survey, with responses from professionals managing $478 billion AUM, diversification ranked as the top reason for investing in digital assets, cited by 30% of respondents. 

Store of value

Bitcoin has trended over time to long-term holding. It’s commonly referred to as digital gold for its characteristics in being a stateless, finite asset immune to monetary debasement or seizure. In our view, longer time-horizon institutions and regulatory developments are likely to only reinforce this perception in the coming years.

TAM model methodology

Methodology continuity

Our core methodology remains unchanged:

• A top-down TAM model of monetary value pools.

• Scenario-based capture rates per segment.

• A Verhulst S-curve for modeling the capture over time.

• Bitcoin’s supply history and expected future curve.

The result is an estimated demand curve over time that can be squared with bitcoin’s pre-set supply curve, which, taken together, provides annual price projections that reflect the input expectations of how well bitcoin will compete with each monetary asset over time. With this iteration, our monetary value pools have been marked-to-market to 2025 levels and we’ve modified our capture rate assumptions across many of the market segments.

Updated market data

As of May 2025, global monetary asset values are as follows:

When compared to the 2022 total of $170.3 tn, monetary assets have grown ~21% over the past three years, driven primarily by M2 expansion in developed economies and gold price and supply growth.

The main model premise is that bitcoin could gradually absorb share from each of these monetary asset pools:

1. Global Broad Money: the liquid monetary base (cash, checking, and savings deposits) held by individuals and businesses. 

2. Corporate Treasury Assets: this figure estimates strictly the cash and cash equivalent holdings of corporations globally 

3. Central Bank FX Reserves: including only foreign exchange reserves (currencies and gold) held by central banks, not full balance sheets.

4. Gold: the estimated value of all above-ground gold at current market U.S. dollar prices.

Model assumption revisions

See the table at the bottom of this section for the sizes and our capture assumptions of each market segment. Here’s a summary of the changes made since last time:

• Capture rates for Central Bank Foreign Exchange Reserves have increased across developed, emerging, and frontier markets. Our rationale is based on Bitcoin’s new status as a strategic reserve asset in the U.S., growing skepticism toward dollar hegemony, and increasing global interest in non-dollar settlement systems.

• Corporate Treasury capture rates remain unchanged, as previous forecasts already accounted for the trend of institutional adoption, which has made strides, yet often through capital market raises as opposed to free cash flow, which gives us pause.

• In the Gold segment, we've increased capture rates for both ETFs and Bars/Coins. The former based on bitcoin’s increased competitiveness as a diversifier and growing inclusion in the alternatives bucket of modern portfolios. The latter based on bitcoin’s use as a self-custodied, last-resort store of value, which we find is comparable in use case to physical gold holdings.

• Finally, Global Broad Money (M2): capture in developed markets has been modestly increased due to the embrace of U.S. regulated ETF products and positive government action. Our conviction in strong emerging market adoption remains unchanged, however Frontier market assumptions have been decreased based on our view that bitcoin adoption is more sustainable among global middle-income populations relative to subsistence-level economies.

TAM model output

The capture assumptions covered previously we hold as a baseline scenario that informs bitcoin’s market cap at the end of the model's time horizon. In the chart below, we also show pessimistic and optimistic scenarios in which bitcoin captures half or two times our estimations. 

We continue to use a 30-year horizon from Bitcoin’s inception (2009–2039) and apply the same S-shaped adoption curve chosen in 2022. It assumes adoption on a timeline and path similar to previous technological advances such as the internet, mobile phones, and social media. The early stages of growth are exponential, then once saturation begins, growth slows and becomes more linear, and finally, the curve flattens as growth tapers toward a maturity state. 

Mapping capture scenarios to Bitcoin price

We recognize that readers likely hold a wide range of views about Bitcoin’s trajectory, and we understand that our estimations may be quite off the mark. So whether you read our assumptions as conservative or aggressive, the following matrix is intended to give you a flexible view of bitcoin valuation. 

It shows the potential bitcoin price under varying levels of capture across each value pool. It’s a quick way to input your own expectations about bitcoin’s future monetary role and translate those views into a price estimate.

Each cross point in the table represents a per-BTC price contribution from a given capture percentage and monetary asset pool. These values are additive, so you can sum across categories to build your own scenario. 

For example, a 1% capture of all monetary asset pools results in a price estimate of slightly above $104k/btc. However, if you believe bitcoin is unlikely to compete with the cash positions of Corporate Treasuries or FX Reserves (assigning them 0%) but more likely to take a share of Global M2 (let’s assume 2%) and Gold (5%), the sum of those contributions would estimate a value of US$189k/btc.

Model limitations 

We reiterate the primary sources of error noted in 2022 and include several updated caveats:

• Overlap in value pools may still overstate total TAM (e.g., gold held by central banks FX reserves).

• Value pool growth is likely to continue in nominal terms over time.

• Regulatory and political frictions may delay or suppress adoption.

• Adoption timeline is unlikely to exactly follow our chosen S-curve, as behavioral shifts in monetary asset preference remain difficult, even implausible, to predict.

• Geographic data on bitcoin usage remains sparse, limiting our precision in fully understanding current and historical adoption.

Terminal Value and Model Time Horizon set a restrictive ceiling on bitcoin adoption, which very well may under estimate its potential value. We also do not consider bitcoin to cease existing beyond this time horizon, but exist in a mature state of adoption.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has already proven to be a competitive form of money and is continuing on an organically developing path to take a more meaningful share of monetary markets. The TAM model continues to support a simple long-term thesis that even modest inroads into global monetary markets would translate into significant upside for investors. Since our last iteration, Bitcoin has grown materially in adoption, particularly among individuals in developed markets, as well as innovators in the corporate and professional investor communities. 

While the global macro and regulatory environments are complex and always in flux, the structural trends for Bitcoin appear increasingly favorable. Most notably the improved regulatory clarity in the U.S., growing integration into mainstream financial markets, and skepticism around how governments manage the economy. Theoretically, it’s a primed setup that may accelerate the timeline of bitcoin adoption.

What we are certain about is that bitcoin remains a uniquely competitive asset, because of a combination of properties that differentiate it from alternatives. It’s geopolitically neutral, global, has a capped supply, and can be held and sent without any assistance and in a fully digital manner. It’s for these reasons why it’s been organically adopted from nothing, a simple experiment, something that didn’t even obtain a market price for more than its first year of existence. And as this adoption has taken place, what we observe is that its liquidity has grown, volatility dampened, and the number of new and existing businesses integrating services has increased. 

The implication being that, while not a perfect money by any means, bitcoin has become a more useful form of money over time and is increasingly likely to obtain a higher share of monetary markets.

The model explained in this report is a way to help quantify a future for investors where the bitcoin monetization story continues to unfold. We are not claiming this model is or will be precise, but it provides a framework to assess a wide range of future outcomes, depending on how bitcoin competes across pools of monetary value. Ultimately, our takeaway from this research is simple. Bitcoin does not need to replace the global monetary system to be profoundly valuable. Capturing a small share of these enormous markets would be more than enough.