Back in 2023, we conducted what was, to our knowledge, the first meta-study on global bitcoin ownership. Using more than 20 different surveys, we constructed a global historical ownership timeline extending all the way back to 2016, with bitcoin ownership broken down on a country-by-country basis.

The results were quite interesting. Not only did we find that more than 250 million people likely owned, or had some exposure to, bitcoin in some way, we also learned that the vast majority of these people lived outside of countries defined by MSCI as being “Developed”. This put an abrupt end to our—in hindsight silly—preconception that bitcoin was primarily a developed market phenomenon.

We were also astounded by the rapid rate of growth. From our first fledgling data points back in 2016, where we estimated that around 1.2m people worldwide owned bitcoin, to our latest estimate of 260m for the year of 2022, our calculated CAGR was 146%—in line with the extremely rapid growth of the Internet back in its early days.

Estimating the total amount of global bitcoin owners is extremely difficult, but it is also highly important to us as it forms the main external input data of our ongoing, adoption-based, bitcoin valuation model. As such, once 2025 rolled around, we decided it was time to re-do the analysis so that we could update our valuation figures.

We Kept the Methodology Essentially Unchanged

We therefore went forth using more or less the same methodology we had used back in 2023. The biggest difference is that we decided to pay less attention to accompanying demographic data, and instead concentrate fully on ownership alone.

Rather than rehashing the methodology in this paper, for those that are interested in reading up on our methods, we recommend reading our previous work, here. This time around, we were able to find 11 new valuable surveys, which we consider quite good in light of the much shorter time period over which we were estimating. Per usual, we have excluded a significant amount of studies, either because we considered them not up to the standard we require, or because they relied on one or more of the other studies.

One of the main problems we keep encountering however, is that a lot of our best source data is found in annual reports that are released quite some time into the next year. Unfortunately, that has meant that we were only able to get one additional year of added estimates fulfilling our standard of numerical quality.  

Results Show Larger than Expected Ownership Growth

As with our previous study, we have elected to conservatively assume zero ownership growth between 2023 and 2024. We do this to keep a bit of a lid on future growth expectations and make sure that if we err in our estimates, we are at least more likely to err on the side of underestimating the real numbers.

The numbers still surprised us to the upside. While still quite some way away from the 146% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of bitcoin’s early life, the number of estimated bitcoin owners almost doubled between 2022 and 2023. As of the end of 2023, our current estimate is that around 467m people own bitcoin, around 5.8% of the total global population, or about 7.8% of the global population above the age of 15.

Previously, in our valuation model that builds on this dataset, we had assumed an annual growth rate of around 20% as being reasonable for the next five years. Even when holding 2024 ownership numbers constant at 2023 levels, the CAGR between 2022 and 2024 would be around 32%. 

The proportion of bitcoin owners is largely similar to that of 2022, but in relative terms the weakest growth came from Standalone markets, while Frontier markets experienced the strongest growth. It is also important to note that this makes Standalone countries dramatically underrepresented given their share of global population (Developed 13%, Emerging 58%, Frontier 18%, Standalone 11%). In contrast, emerging markets are dramatically overrepresented. Frontier and developed countries are more or less exactly in line with expectations.
We should also note that none of our numbers take the size of bitcoin holdings into account. Having searched for many years, we have been almost entirely unable to find any reliable data on holding sizes outside of a few select countries. This is a topic we cover in more depth in our paper covering the previously mentioned valuation model: Bitcoin Valuation by Savings Adoption. 

Ownership is still dominated by Emerging markets, with India remaining the undisputed leader in terms of total owners. But our biggest positive surprise this year was the huge annual growth in US bitcoin ownership. Between 2022 and 2023, our estimates indicate that the total number of US owners grew from around 21m to 35m, surpassing China, meaning that the US is now in second place in terms of the total numbers of owners by country. Due to the high income of US citizens, this has a huge impact on our valuation by user adoption model, as we will show in our follow-up article from this update.

It is interesting to see that, when counting in total numbers of users, bitcoin largely remains an emerging market phenomenon. As discussed in our first installment of this series, this is to be expected. 

This is where circumstances pair most smoothly with the properties Bitcoin offers. Bitcoin is scarce, has a strong history of returns, and access is simple over the internet. Meanwhile, in emerging market countries, currency inflation is often sticky; investment options are relatively limited; and, memories of policy missteps or devaluations tend to linger in the minds of living generations. Seeing bitcoin uptake being high in the countries, where the competing local fiat currency is comparatively weak, should surprise no one.

When we correct for population size however, a slightly different leaderboard emerges.

While many of the countries in the top 20 remain the same across both tables, when looking at ownership in percent terms, a number of smaller countries are able to enter the leaderboard. Throning at the very top we find two relatively tiny countries with a significant lead down to third place: UAE and El Salvador. While the high ownership percentage among Salvadoreans might not be very surprising given their friendly government policies, seeing the United Arab Emirates, known for its wealthy population boast an almost 20% bitcoin ownership rate is quite something.

Also on the percentage-based leaderboard we find small, rich countries such as Switzerland and Singapore—both countries being well-known for their large GDP per capita and aggressive national savings rates.

But perhaps more interestingly, we also find struggling frontier countries such as Venezuela and Ghana. As mentioned above, in these countries, bitcoin ownership probably arises more from necessity than anything else. For many years now, Venezuela has been the poster child of hyperinflation, probably making the availability of bitcoin a welcome opportunity for the population to move their monetary holdings away from the Venezuelan Bolivar—whatever version they are currently on.

We can now Update our Valuation by Savings Adoption Model

Having now completed this exercise, the next natural step for us is to update our Valuation by Savings Adoption model to incorporate the new figures. What we can already say is that the impact of the US adoption increase alone will make a big difference in our estimated flow calculations.

On top of that, since our last attempt at tackling these questions, we have been fortunate enough to come across what we consider the first excellent attempt at properly quantifying one of the most mysterious (and hugely impactful) metrics of any flow-based valuation model: the flow to market-cap multiple.

Suffice it to say, we are extremely excited for our valuation model update and look forward to posting it as a follow-up to this article as soon as possible.