3 min read
After a rough few weeks for crypto, our Research team walked through why the market sold off and what might stabilize it next. The drawdown was framed as a classic mix of over-leverage at new highs, a Binance-linked liquidity cascade, and a temporary “macro blackout” from missing U.S. data that left markets unsure about the Fed’s path. Mid-cycle halving dynamics and notable whale distribution added sustained selling pressure, while the recent bounce was tied less to whales re-buying and more to improving rate-cut expectations after dovish Fed remarks.The panel argued this doesn’t look like a return to a 2022-style crypto winter, but rather a reset phase where the market needs time to form a new floor. They also explored why ETH underperformed BTC (DeFi-driven mechanical deleveraging, thinner liquidity, and contagion from stressed vaults), debated the Zcash “privacy narrative” rally as mostly coordinated flow/hedging rather than a true paradigm shift, and then shifted to structural themes: Bitcoin treasury companies trading below mNAV, and the rise of specialized stablecoin Layer-1s like Tempo and the freshly launched Monad. Overall, the tone was cautious near-term, constructive on longer-term adoption and infrastructure evolution.
Key takeaways
Selloff drivers were mostly positioning + liquidity, not a fundamental break. Over-leveraging into ATHs, a Binance-related liquidity cascade, and whale selling created the downturn; missing macro data amplified uncertainty.
Macro clarity, not whales, is the near-term support lever. Stabilization was tied to dovish Fed signals and rising odds of a December cut, which helped put a floor under BTC.
Not a “classic crypto winter,” but a slow floor-building phase. Expect time and further digestion of revived supply before any push back to highs.
ETH weakness was mechanical and DeFi-linked. Automatic deleveraging, contagion through vaults, spiking borrow rates, and thinner ETH order books explain the sharper drawdown—even as ETH-denominated DeFi TVL rose, signaling underlying resilience.
Derivatives froth has cooled. Funding briefly went negative (often a short-term reversal signal) and open interest reset toward mid-year levels; leverage hasn’t rushed back.
Zcash rally looked coordinated/technical, not a lasting privacy shift. Seen as a low-liquidity, narrative-driven hedge during downturn conditions, with real privacy demand still better served elsewhere.
Treasury companies below mNAV = weaker funding capacity, not automatic forced selling. Rotation into miners/AI-compute narratives hurt treasury names; sub-1x mNAV may be an entry opportunity but reduces ability to raise equity for more BTC.
Forced-seller “death spiral” fears are overstated. Even if Strategy/MSTR ever sold, the expectation is orderly sales and enough market liquidity to absorb flows.
Tempo highlights a new stablecoin stack: verticalized, compliance-friendly rails. Klarna’s stablecoin on Tempo shows big merchants can capture payment economics (fees, FX, float). Public L1s lose the “all stablecoins settle here” narrative, but EVM compatibility and bridging keep Ethereum central to liquidity/DeFi.
Monad launch: great tech, but adoption risk is about incentives and network effects. High-FDV launches can deter builders, though deep incentive budgets may help. Survival depends on landing breakout apps and durable liquidity, not just performance.
Liquidity is increasingly fragmented across millions of tokens. This dispersion helps explain the lack of a broad alt-season versus 2021’s concentrated liquidity regime.
