Market update | April 24th, 2026

Amid the Iran crisis, Bitcoin continues to outperform traditional assets

Bitcoin’s crisis resilience is becoming harder to ignore. Since the escalation on 28 February, Bitcoin has returned close to 23%, while equities have fallen 3.3% and gold has declined nearly 9%. That divergence held firm again this week. Bitcoin added a further 4.5%, even as both gold and equities drifted lower. For an asset whose risk profile has long been debated, the current environment is providing a meaningful real-time test of its crisis credentials, and so far the evidence is becoming increasingly compelling. Fund flows reinforce that point, with digital asset products attracting around US$1 billion this week despite continued geopolitical instability.

The most important macro event of the week was Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing. The key question going in was whether he would preserve the Federal Reserve’s independence from presidential influence. Markets appeared satisfied by his answers. Futures barely moved, and Bitcoin showed no meaningful reaction. This removes one obvious near-term source of concern around policy credibility.

Warsh’s broader policy record is somewhat more hawkish than Chair Powell’s, although his commentary through 2026 has been marginally more dovish than many expected. Our base case remains that his confirmation proceeds ahead of the June deadline. The more interesting implication for markets is not necessarily the immediate policy stance, but the likely shift in communication style. Warsh is expected to be more restrained than Powell in offering forward guidance, which could leave rate-sensitive assets facing a less clearly signposted policy path over the coming years.

Away from macro, the strongest area of institutional conviction this month has been blockchain equities. Month-to-date inflows have reached US$615 million, a monthly record, with US$289 million arriving this week alone so far. That is a notable development, not only because of the scale of demand, but because it points to a broader change in how institutions are choosing to express digital asset exposure.

Will the Clarity Act pass in 2026?

Two factors are driving this. The first is performance. Blockchain equity indices are up more than 12% year to date, while Bitcoin mining-focused benchmarks have gained over 31%, compared with 6.9% for the Nasdaq. The second is structural. A growing number of listed miners are repositioning toward AI infrastructure, using existing power contracts and data-centre footprints to provide compute capacity. That creates a listed vehicle with exposure to two of the strongest themes in equity markets at the same time. For allocators still restricted from taking direct digital asset exposure, this is becoming one of the clearest and most practical ways to access the theme without assuming full crypto-native risk.

Looking ahead, attention is likely to shift toward the Clarity Act. The legislative window is narrowing quickly. Unless the bill is signed into law by the end of May, the probability of passage this year falls sharply, with some observers suggesting the timeline could slip all the way to 2030. Polymarket odds have fallen recently to 45% highlighting increasing scepticism it will pass.

The market impact would not be uniform. Bitcoin and Ethereum are relatively insulated, while decentralised finance and broader token markets are much more exposed to the outcome. But the significance extends beyond crypto-native assets. If passed, the Clarity Act would provide the regulatory foundation that large traditional banks, several of which are already active in custody, need in order to scale their digital asset businesses properly. More than any single ETF or product launch, that would mark the real institutionalisation of the asset class.