Market update | April 10th, 2026

Market sentiment turned decisively more constructive this week, with digital asset investment products seeing US$415m of inflows. Notably, this marks a second consecutive week of whale accumulation, the first sustained inflow period in roughly seven months. This shift in flows is important. It suggests that large holders are moving from distribution toward accumulation, reducing one of the key structural overhangs that has persisted since late 2025.

Macro and Fed: a cautiously shifting backdrop

Macro data provided a mixed but ultimately supportive backdrop. Core PCE came in line with expectations at 0.4%, reinforcing the view that disinflation is progressing, albeit gradually. While personal income surprised to the downside and is now at its lowest level since this time last year, this weakness did not materially shift market expectations. CPI data was modestly softer than forecast, driven in part by lower food costs, although energy prices rose significantly as expected. One nuance worth noting is airfares, which are measured at the point of booking rather than travel. This introduces a lagged effect that is likely to feed into inflation prints in coming months.

The FOMC minutes from the March meeting reinforced a “higher for longer” stance, but with a more balanced internal debate emerging. The Committee continues to view economic activity as resilient and the labour market as tight, while acknowledging that inflation remains above target. However, there is increasing recognition of downside risks, including tighter credit conditions and the lagged impact of prior tightening. While policy is still restrictive, the tone has shifted from unambiguously hawkish to more data-dependent, with some openness to rate cuts later in the year if disinflation continues.

Bitcoin emerges as a non-sovereign asset in a fragmented world

Geopolitics remained a central driver. The divergence between gold and bitcoin over recent weeks is notable, with gold declining while bitcoin has appreciated. This reflects a non-standard market response to the Iran-related shock. Bitcoin entered the period with significantly cleaner positioning, following approximately US$39bn of prior whale distribution and a meaningful reduction in leverage. As a result, it has been less exposed to forced selling and more responsive to incremental inflows.

At the same time, the market narrative around bitcoin appears to be evolving. In the context of rising geopolitical fragmentation, sanctions risk, and stress in traditional settlement systems, bitcoin is increasingly being treated as a non-sovereign asset rather than a pure risk proxy. This has helped it remain resilient even as interest rate expectations have shifted higher.

Outlook: four variables to watch

The announcement of a temporary two-week ceasefire has provided near-term relief. Oil prices have fallen, rate hike expectations have moderated, and risk assets have rebounded. Mechanically, this reduces one of the key headwinds for crypto, namely the inflation shock driven by energy markets. However, the agreement remains fragile and conditional, suggesting that markets are pricing relief rather than resolution.

Looking ahead, four variables will dominate. Oil remains the primary macro transmission channel. Monetary policy expectations will continue to shape liquidity conditions. Flows will determine whether institutional participation is stabilising or expanding. Finally, market structure, particularly the behaviour of large holders, will dictate the sustainability of any recovery.

Overall, the setup is increasingly constructive for bitcoin, particularly relative to the broader crypto market. However, the environment remains regime-driven and sensitive to macro shocks. Selectivity remains key, with bitcoin continuing to offer the clearest exposure to the current macro and geopolitical backdrop.