3 min läsningTrump uncertainty
President Trump’s unpredictable trade policy continues to fuel global uncertainty, as the administration pushes ahead with sweeping tariff measures despite legal challenges. While the precise details of these policies remain unclear, the fallout is already visible—eroding consumer and business confidence, driving market volatility, and complicating the task of central banks. This broader uncertainty around monetary policy has, in our view, contributed to bitcoin prices moving sideways over the past week as investors adopt a wait and see approach.
US employement and interest rate implications
US non-farm payrolls came in marginally higher than expected at 139k—well below April’s 177k, although this was revised down to 147k. The employment figures likely reflect that ongoing tariff concerns and signs of a potential economic slowdown are not evident so far in employment data despite weak soft macro data. Concerningly, month-on-month hourly earnings rose from 0.2% to 0.4%, and above consensus, highlighting further potential inflationary pressures while weakening the prospect for earlier interest rate cuts.
Traders vs. Investors
Within the trading team, there’s mounting concern over near-term bitcoin price action. Investors appear to be predominantly building short positions, and a backdrop of lower volatility and subdued leverage is limiting opportunities for directional trades. This stands in contrast to broader crypto investment trends, particularly in ETFs. Global crypto fund flows remain strong, with US$255 million in net inflows this week— but driven solely by Ethereum, which is now enjoying its seventh consecutive week of inflows totaling US$1.6 billion representing an astonishing 10% of total assets under management.
IPOs and Bitcoin treasury momentum
Circle’s IPO was a resounding success, raising $1.1 billion through the sale of 34 million shares at $31 each, well above the previous marketed range of 24million shares at $24-26 looking to raise $624m. The deal valued Circle at $6.9 billion ($8.1 billion fully diluted) and ignited a frenzy in the secondary market, with shares surging as much as 235% in early NYSE trading, opening at $69 and briefly touching $100.
Investor demand was fueled by multiple positive factors: renewed optimism in the crypto sector, momentum on the stablecoin regulatory bill that could enable Circle to expand its USDC market cap and product suite, and rumours of potential acquisition interest from industry giants like Coinbase and Ripple just weeks before the IPO. The presence of institutional investors, including ARK Investment Management and BlackRock, further bolstered sentiment and credibility.
Despite this, Circle’s financials reveal some constraints. In 2024, the company generated $1.68 billion in revenue but only $156 million in net income, highlighting already thin margins and limited room for margin expansion unless interest rates rise or Circle can renegotiate more favorable terms with exchange partners. This dynamic underscores the premium valuation investors are placing on Circle’s growth potential and market leadership rather than near-term profitability. Nonetheless, the strong reception to Circle’s IPO is likely to set a precedent, encouraging other crypto firms to pursue public listings as a means to raise capital and accelerate their growth strategies.
Bitcoin Treasury stocks continue to capture attention. A wave of new corporate BTC adopters has shifted capital away from miners, creating a notable disconnect.
Treasury stocks are up 30% year-to-date, while miners have declined 21% on average.
