Market update | August 13th, 2026

A low-volume lull, with the macro backdrop quietly turning

Bitcoin remains caught in a summer lull, with unusually low trading volumes making short-term price moves harder to interpret. Daily Bitcoin volumes are currently running at US$4B per day on trusted exchanges, with similarly subdued activity across equities and other risk assets. In this environment, relatively small flows can have an outsized impact on price, so we would be cautious about reading too much into day-to-day volatility.

The macro backdrop has nevertheless become more supportive. Recent US labour market data was notably weak, including significant downward revisions, with the economy adding an average of only around 20,000 jobs per month over the last three months. The anticipated employment boost from the World Cup also appears to have been much weaker than expected. At the same time, the latest CPI print came in broadly in line with expectations and continues to move closer to the Fed's target.

Ordinarily, weaker employment alongside moderating inflation would be a clear positive for Bitcoin through lower interest-rate expectations. Bitcoin's initial reaction was surprisingly muted, but this likely reflects the lack of liquidity rather than a deterioration in sentiment. Since then, prices have begun to recover, and the broader backdrop looks more constructive than it did at the start of the week. Bitcoin has traded almost inversely to gold over the last five days, suggesting it is behaving more like a risk asset than a long-duration asset at present.

Global ETP flows don’t provide any insights

Fund flows remain similarly difficult to interpret. This week looks set to finish with modest outflows of around US$150M, following inflows last week. In the context of exceptionally thin summer trading, we do not view that as evidence of a meaningful reversal in sentiment. It is more consistent with a market that remains in a holding pattern while investors wait for a clearer signal from monetary policy and economic data. The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium at the end of this month should provide that much-needed clarity.

One macro risk worth watching more closely is Japan. Japanese government bond yields continue to rise as domestic inflation remains elevated. Japan has historically been a significant source of demand for US Treasuries, so any sustained rotation by Japanese investors back toward domestic bonds could reduce foreign demand for US government debt and place renewed upward pressure on US yields.

This is not our base case yet, and the latest US inflation print has reduced some of the immediate pressure. But the structural issue remains. Heavy US Treasury issuance combined with weaker overseas demand could make bond markets increasingly vulnerable to episodes of yield volatility. Paradoxically, that could eventually strengthen the case for Bitcoin. If investors begin to question the stability of sovereign bond markets, Bitcoin's role as a non-sovereign, decentralised monetary asset becomes more relevant.

Elsewhere, the recent Coldcard exploit has attracted attention because hardware wallets are generally viewed as one of the safer forms of self-custody. The broader lesson is less about crypto-specific risk and more about digital infrastructure generally. Crypto exploits are highly visible because transactions are transparent and traceable on-chain. Traditional financial systems have a much broader set of attack surfaces across databases, custodians, payment networks, registries and settlement infrastructure. As AI makes cyberattacks more sophisticated, decentralised systems are likely to benefit relative to more centralised ones.

For now, Bitcoin remains in a low-volume consolidation phase. Flows are mixed and price action is noisy, but weaker labour data, moderating inflation and a potentially less hawkish Fed are gradually improving the macro backdrop.