2 min readMacro data confirms market optimism
This week’s macroeconomic data has broadly aligned with the market’s optimistic expectations, reinforcing the view that the U.S. economy remains on solid ground. This is particularly notable given the anticipated inflationary effects of President Trump’s new trade tariffs.
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. The decision marked a significant moment: for the first time in over 30 years, there was a double dissent from within the Fed. Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman — both Trump appointees — voted in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, citing growing concerns over labor market weakness.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back firmly against both internal and external pressure, including from the White House, maintaining that the central bank must remain vigilant on inflation. He argued that although the economic impact of tariffs is still uncertain, the current stance is appropriate, and that any inflationary effects may prove transitory.
Futures markets have recalibrated rate expectations, now pricing in a single 25bp cut in December. However, we believe both the Fed and the market are underestimating the short-lived nature of tariff-driven inflation. As a result, we anticipate a knee-jerk 50bp rate cut in December, which would likely act as a tailwind for crypto assets. The most recent payroll data highlights this, coming significantly below expectations.
Most FOMC members appear aligned with Powell’s cautious approach. Their view is supported by stronger-than-expected economic indicators: a robust June jobs report, better-than-consensus GDP growth, and uncertainty about the long-term inflationary impact of tariffs.
We maintain that the tariffs will result in a one-time price adjustment, with month-on-month inflation readings softening by year-end. Key inflation drivers like energy prices remain stable, and labor market weakness is likely to keep wage growth subdued—unlike the strong wage-driven inflation of 2021–2022. In addition, shifting dynamics in the housing market, especially moderating rents, will likely contribute to disinflationary pressures going forward.
The White House’s crypto task force report delivered
The latest report from the Trump Administration represents an ambitious and notably bullish stance on digital assets — arguably the most aggressive federal crypto policy push to date.
The CFTC’s expanded authority over spot markets for non-security digital assets is a step toward a more unified regulatory framework, echoing Europe’s MiCA. Coupled with an explicit embrace of DeFi integration into traditional finance, this marks a bold and differentiating policy shift not yet mirrored in other major jurisdictions.
On taxation, long-needed clarity is finally emerging. Proposals to address de minimis exemptions, staking rewards, and the classification of digital assets for federal tax purposes could simplify compliance and support responsible industry growth.
While this roadmap is encouraging, critical details remain absent — especially around how AML/CFT oversight will be applied to DeFi without compromising its foundational decentralization. This remains a key unresolved challenge.
Ultimately, the roadmap reflects a clear ideological direction, but its success will hinge on bipartisan legislative support, efficient regulatory execution, and the ability to balance freedom, innovation, and financial integrity.
More hawkish rhetoric from the FED this week has led to a marked slow down in inflows in digital asset ETPs. Inflows for the first few days of this week were healthy but have dried up in the latter half as investors digested the FOMC and stronger than expected macro data.
