Is the decoupling of Lidos staked ETH another stablecoin collapse

Lido is a liquid staking service that allows users to stake ETH and receive a tokenised IOU in return called stETH. This allows users to reap the rewards of staking but still have access to a liquid asset. Lido’s stETH is the most popular liquid staking derivative and has roughly 1/3 of all staked ETH locked up in their contract. In recent months, the Ethereum community has become concerned over the amount of power that Lido has amassed, and the centralisation forces behind it. If a malicious actor controls 33% of staked ETH, then the repercussions could be detrimental, hence the controversy over these liquid staking services. Debates on the risks and rewards of such services have started to become more vibrant online yet no silver bullet solution has been offered.

Looking back, Lido had the first mover’s advantage and launched in January 2021, one month after Ethereum released its staking implementation. The initial trading periodwas relatively volatile with stETH trading between 0.93 and 1.02 ETH and after a few months and more liquidity, stETH settled at approximately a 1:1 ratio with ETH. However, since the UST de-pegging in May 2022, stETH began trading at a ~2% discount and over the weekend stETH dropped to 0.94 ETH (6% discount) which has caused fears of a "bank run" and possibly a contagion among leveraged entities.

Unlike UST, stETH does not need to trade 1:1 to function correctly, but as Ethereum has not yet enabled withdrawals from staking there are currently no arbitrage opportunities to keep the price in check.

To clarify, this is not similar to the Terra crash as the underlying asset ETH is not directly affected by the market price of stETH so staked ETH continues to secure the network as intended. At this point, Lido’s product can be called premature due to the inability to un-stake making stETH feature incomplete.

Regardless, as stETH is redeemable 1:1 for ETH, it is the market makers (like Celsius) who may be forced to sell their holdings to satisfy redemptions since the underlying ETH is locked up with no withdrawal date in sight. It should be noted that the on-chain data shows that Celsius does indeed have enough assets to match the liabilities in the event that all stETH is redeemed but given the opaqueness of centralised entities this is not certain. Entities such as SwissBorg, BlockFi, Hodlnaut, Abra, Salt Lending and Nexo may also have to fulfil redemptions.

Although PTSD from UST de-peg is still fresh in the market's mind, it is arguable that stETH should trade at a discount to ETH due to the following:

• Lido Smart Contract Risk

• Risk of Liquidity

• Risk related to Beacon Chain RoadMap

• Time Horizon Risk

Based on the above, stETH should not trade at 1:1 with ETH on the secondary market.

Those with a long-term time horizon whose P&L are denominated in ETH may see this as a buying opportunity as stETH will eventually become redeemable 1:1 for ETH when withdrawals are enabled. However, those with shorter-term time horizons with USD denominated P&Ls probably need to exit their positions. Arbitrageurs may also be buying stETH at a discount and shorting ETH.

Downward pressure is also worsened by those market participants who have leveraged stETH with a limited time horizon and those at risk of margin calls. Furthermore, this narrative has materially depressed market sentiment as other cryptos have begun to sell-off in response to the fear, uncertainty and doubt.

The latest updates on Ethereum’s testnets have been positive which brings more confidence to those waiting on the Merge. So, when withdrawals are eventually enabled, any discount in stETH will likely be arbitraged away but until that unknown date arrives there will exist some form of discount. This decoupling event will prove to be costly for some and present buying opportunities for others. Either way, this will strengthen the call for regulation of lending platforms and the digital asset ecosystem in general.

The information contained in this document is for general information only. Nothing in this document should be interpreted as constituting an offer of (or any solicitation in connection with) any investment products or services by any member of the CoinShares Group where it may be illegal to do so. Access to any investment products or services of the CoinShares Group is in all cases subject to the applicable laws and regulations relating thereto.

Although produced with reasonable care and skill, no representation should be taken as having been given that this document is an exhaustive analysis of all of the considerations which its subject-matter may give rise to. This document fairly represents the opinions and sentiments of CoinShares, as at the date of its issuance but it should be noted that such opinions and sentiments may be revised from time to time, for example in light of experience and further developments, and this document may not necessarily be updated to reflect the same.

The information presented in this document has been developed internally and / or obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, CoinShares does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information. Predictions, opinions and other information contained in this document are subject to change continually and without notice of any kind and may no longer be true after the date indicated. Third party data providers make no warranties or representation of any kind in relation to the use of any of their data in this document. CoinShares does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its contents.

Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and CoinShares assumes no duty to, and does not undertake, to update forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties, which change over time. Nothing within this document constitutes (or should be construed as being) investment, legal, tax or other advice. This document should not be used as the basis for any investment decision(s) which a reader thereof may be considering. Any potential investor in digital assets, even if experienced and affluent, is strongly recommended to seek independent financial advice upon the merits of the same in the context of their own unique circumstances.

This document is directed at, and only made available to, professional clients and eligible counterparties. For UK investors: CoinShares Capital Markets (UK) Limited is an appointed representative of Strata Global Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 563834). The address of CoinShares Capital Markets (UK) Limited is 82 Baker Street, London, W1U 6TE. For EU investors: Napoleon AM (napoleon-am.com) is a French asset management company regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF), registered under number GP-19000015 since 27/03/2019. Its office is located at 11 rue Paul Lelong, 75002 Paris, France.

The CoinShares Astronaut is a trademark and service mark of CoinShares (Holdings) Limited.

Copyright © 2022 CoinShares All Rights Reserved