The fundamental value proposition of bitcoin (BTC) is that it has the potential to become a new global form of money. For this to happen, it needs to be accepted and used for monetary purposes such as spending or saving by a significant proportion of the global population.
Late 2024 estimates of the number of bitcoin users range from 150 million to 350 million. 250 million users would represent approximately 3% of the global population, which suggests bitcoin adoption still has a long way to go before it would start reaching saturation. Nonetheless, with bitcoin adoption starting at zero in 2009, and growing organically since, current levels of adoption are already strong.
Long-term investors tend to focus on the future demand for bitcoin, and therefore its monetary adoption. Because the supply of BTC units is both finite and relatively close to reaching its limit — already over 94% in 2024 — there is no uncertainty regarding new supply. With the long-term supply side already known, the only unknown side of the equation for investors is long-term demand. The expectation for fundamentally focused owners is therefore that bitcoin will increase its adoption, increasing demand, and thereby the value of their bitcoin units along the way.