2 min readEarly 2026 struggles to find equilibrium
Bitcoin began 2026 on a firmer footing, rebounding strongly after a difficult end to last year. Prices pushed back above $93,000 this week, reflecting a combination of improved macro sentiment and a renewed pickup in institutional flows. After late-2025 was characterised by consolidation, ETF outflows and positioning fatigue, the early-year reversal suggests fresh capital is re-entering the market as investors rebalance portfolios and look ahead to a potentially more supportive policy environment.
After a strong start, Bitcoin ETFs see a new wave of outflows
US spot Bitcoin ETF flows have turned positive, at one point exceeding US$1.5B year to date, including a single-day inflow of US$825M earlier this week. This reinforced the view that allocator demand remains intact despite recent volatility. However, flows have reversed sharply over the past two days, with more than US$1B of outflows. This appears to have been driven by concerns about a potential supply overhang following vague reports suggesting Venezuela holds up to US$60B in bitcoin. We believe this scenario is unlikely based on a closer assessment of the underlying sources and on-chain data. In addition, macroeconomic data has generally come in stronger than expected, modestly reducing the probability of a March rate cut and likely adding further near-term pressure on prices.
On the policy front, there is still no confirmed date for the announcement of the next Federal Reserve chair. President Trump is expected to name his nominee later this month, potentially around the World Economic Forum in Davos. While Kevin Hassett is widely viewed as a leading contender, the decision has not yet been formally disclosed. Historically, Fed chairs are announced 3 months before the incumbent’s term ends to allow for Senate confirmation and policy continuity, making the timing of this decision imminent given Chair Powell’s term ending in May 2026. Markets are expected to remain sensitive to any signals around the future policy reaction function, particularly if Kevin Hassett is chosen, who is perceived as dovish.
Job data revisions blur the picture
Recent US macro data do little to create urgency for near-term rate cuts. The December jobs report data suggests it is unlikely to materially change the Fed’s stance, particularly as wage growth remains stubbornly high, while the upcoming CPI release is expected to show continued inflation pressure. Labour market data are also being complicated by upcoming statistical revisions. We expect changes to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ birth-death model to lead to weaker headline payroll prints in coming months, as the methodology has historically overstated job creation late in the cycle. In addition, population control updates in the household survey may introduce further measurement noise. These revisions, scheduled to take effect with the January 2026 employment report, increase the risk that headline labour data weaken even if underlying conditions stabilise.
Looking ahead to 2026, we continue to view bitcoin’s longer-term outlook as favourable. The failure to reach previously expected price targets in 2025 appears driven by temporary, idiosyncratic factors rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. As these effects fade, monetary policy, liquidity and money supply dynamics should reassert themselves as the dominant drivers. Under our base case, a bitcoin price around $200,000 by the end of 2026 is achievable, while a bearish outcome of $70,000 to $80,000 remains unlikely. Key risks include geopolitical escalation, renewed inflation shocks, policy errors and financial system stress, some of which could ultimately reinforce bitcoin’s role as an alternative store of value.
