1 min readPersistent Concerns about Tariffs Perspectives
The U.S. manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, with both production and new orders entering growth territory after stagnating for two years. However, challenges remain: job losses persist, and uncertainties around tariffs continue to weigh heavily, especially for businesses relying on global supply chains or export revenues.
President-elect Donald Trump has pledged corporate tax cuts, but concerns about tariffs linger. Higher tariffs could make U.S.-made goods more competitive but disrupt supply chains and invite retaliation from trading partners. Until there’s more clarity on trade policy, U.S. manufacturing activity is likely to remain challenged.
Broader economic indicators are more optimistic. The JOLTS job report suggests a stronger labor market, hinting that Friday’s payrolls data could exceed expectations. While the ISM manufacturing index dropped in November, likely due to post-election uncertainties, recent surveys indicate resilience. The S&P Global Services PMI has shown improvement, suggesting cautious optimism ahead of Trump’s inauguration.
Interesting developments for crypto
On the cryptocurrency front, two initiatives are being explored for creating a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The first is Senator Cynthia Lummis’s ambitious but politically challenging Bitcoin Act, which faces an uncertain path in Congress. The second is a leaked draft of an Executive Order directing the Treasury to integrate Bitcoin into the Exchange Stabilization Fund, potentially allocating $21 billion for additional Bitcoin purchases. This approach bypasses Congress, leveraging executive authority.
From a macroeconomic perspective, Trump’s policies could lead to modestly higher growth and inflation, driven by fiscal stimulus offsetting the dampening effects of tariffs. Most tax and tariff measures, however, are expected to roll out in late 2025 or early 2026, leaving near-term uncertainty. Futures markets currently predict no rate cuts until June, reflecting caution over Trump’s policy impacts and ongoing economic weaknesses, although it remains to be seen whether bearishness is bounded-we are not so sure about that.
Meanwhile, fund flows into Bitcoin remain robust, with US$845m so far this year. Last year’s total inflows reached $44.2 billion, nearly four times the previous record set in 2021, underscoring sustained interest in digital assets.
